Russian military power faces unexpected production crisis by late-2025

The apparent strength of Russias economy (with its 3.6% growth in 2023) hides deep-rooted problems in its war-making ability. The nations unemployment dropped to 2.4% while defense-related jobs grew significantly: adding half-a-million workers to military production facilities

Despite tripling artillery shell output to 3-million yearly‚ Russias military-industrial complex faces serious bottlenecks. The situation with heavy equipment is particularly dire — the country loses about 320 tank and artillery barrels monthly but can make only 20 (due to having just two special forges)

North Korea currently supplies around 50% of Russias artillery shells; however this wont solve the growing equipment crisis. The military-industrial complex faces a worker shortage‚ competing with armed forces that need 30‚000 new troops monthly. Defense companies had to raise wages five-fold which pushed inflation to 8.68%

The war economy creates three bad options for Putin:
* Cut military spending and face recession
* Keep high defense costs and kill civilian economy
* Use military power to get resources from others

The defense budget eats up 41% of state spending (officially 7% of GDP) but real numbers are higher. High interest rates — now at 21% — make it hard for non-military companies to get loans. The civilian sector keeps shrinking as workers move to better-paid defense jobs

By late-2025‚ Russia will hit critical equipment shortages in key weapons systems. Its like a car running out of parts: they cant fix or replace them fast enough. The situation with fighting vehicles shows this clearly — losing 155 monthly while making only 17

The economic strain means Russia might try getting resources through force rather than fixing its problems. Just as Napoleon did in 1803 and Saddam Hussein in 1990 when they couldnt afford their armies‚ Russia could target neighbors resources to prop up its military machine