Syria power shift: Major rebel advance puts Russian influence at risk
Syrian rebel groups took control of key areas near Aleppo making their biggest move in years. Russiaʼs grip on Syria weakens as its military faces problems coordinating defense and managing regional ties
In late-november 2024‚ Hayat Tahrir al-Sham fighters led a quick-strike operation that grabbed parts of Aleppo and moved towards Hama; this move shook up Russias hold on Syria (which they thought was solid since taking Aleppo about 8 years ago)
The attack showed big problems in Russias setup: their air-strikes werent quick enough‚ ground troops were spread thin and their main partner-groups got weaker. At Kuweires air-base Syrian troops just gave up letting rebels take lots of stuff - helicopters planes and air-defense systems (which is a real head-scratcher for military experts)
The push south is extra-worrying because its getting close to Russias important spots: their bases in Tartus and Latakia could get cut off from other areas. The city of Hama sits right between these bases and the rest of Syria; its like a bridge that connects everything together. The loss of al-Safira which makes military stuff was another big hit
- Iranian-backed groups got weaker
- Israeli strikes hit important targets
- Turkish-backed rebels got stronger
- Arab countries support isnt helping much
Moscow tried to keep good ties with everyone in the area but its getting harder: Iran is now closer to Russia than before; Turkey has more power to do what it wants and Israel keeps hitting targets in Syria. The whole thing shows how Russia cant control things like it used to - even though it still has planes in the sky its ground game isnt what it was
Right now Russia wants to keep its bases safe and isnt giving up on Bashar al-Assad but its clear theyre gonna have to change how they do things. They dont have enough soldiers to control everything so theyll probably focus on whats most important to them: keeping that path to the sea open
