Trump's mass-deportation plan could cost US economy way more than expected
New analysis shows Trumps deportation plans might need $88-billion yearly budget for removing 1-million people. Economic experts warn about unexpected side-effects on jobs growth and prices
In his pre-election statements Donald Trump outlined plans for mass-deportations that would start in jan-2025. His running mate J.D. Vance pointed to an initial goal: removing 1-million people starting with violent offenders
The scale of this task is mind-boggling - about 11-million undocumented immigrants live in US now making up 5% of the workforce (they are especially important in farming construction and hospitality sectors)
Stephen Miller whos gonna be deputy chief of staff mentioned workplace raids and detention centers in texas while Tom Homan the future border czar said: “were going to take the handcuffs off ICE“. The programs cost might reach $88-billion per year for just 1-million deportations; removing all 13.3-million people with questionable status would need almost $1-trillion over 10 years
Americans wont do those jobs for below-the-table wages; they wont do those jobs for non-living wages
Research shows unexpected effects: when Obama-era program removed 400k undocumented immigrants it led to 44k US-born workers losing jobs too. Economists explain that immigrants dont really compete with locals for same positions; instead their removal causes labor shortages and higher costs
Looking at tax records undocumented immigrants paid nearly $97-billion in various taxes during 2022. However local governments face challenges: texas spent over $100-million on emergency care last year; NY city expects $12-billion costs for migrant issues in next 3 years
Peterson Institute analysis suggests if 1.3-million people get deported GDP would drop 1.2% by 2028; removing 8.3-million would make it fall 7.4% with agriculture getting hit hardest
