Trump's mega-deportation plan could cost US economy way more than expected
New research shows Trumpʼs mass-deportation idea might backfire on US economy big time. Numbers suggest removing millions of people would hit GDP hard and push prices up faster than predicted
In a pre-election statement Donald Trump promised the biggest deportation plan in US history‚ while J.D. Vance pointed to removing 1M people as their first target (mainly those with criminal records)
When Trump takes office next year his team faces a complex task: about 11M non-documented people live in America making up 5% of workers – theyʼre especially important in farming building and tourism industries. Many of these folks (who pay almost $100B in yearly taxes) have been here since early 2010s
The plans cost breakdown looks scary: removing just 1M people yearly needs $88B; getting rid of all 13‚3M non-documented and temporary-status people would cost near $1T over 10 years. Stephen Miller and Tom Homan (Trumps border-control picks) are already working on large-scale workplace raids and detention centers in TX
Weʼre already working on a plan; weʼre going to take the handcuffs off ICE
A research of Obama-time deportations shows unexpected results: when 400K people were removed 44K US-born workers lost jobs too. The Peterson Institute thinks that if 8‚3M non-documented people are deported:
- GDP might drop 7‚4% by 2028
- Jobs would decrease 6‚7%
- Food prices would rise fast
- Overall inflation would speed up
Michael Clemens from George Mason University explains: “Mass deportation of millions will cause reduced employment opportunities for US workers it will cause reduced economic growth in America it will cause a surge in inflation and it will cause increased budget deficits“
