Middle East power shift: New conflicts emerge as old players step back

In north-western Syria a quick-moving rebel advance has changed the regions power balance. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani took control of Aleppo in just four days (which shocked many experts in middle-east politics)

The take-over happened because several factors lined up at once: Russias focus on Ukraine war‚ Irans attention split between Gaza and Lebanon; plus American sanctions that hurt Syrias economy. The rebel group (which used to be connected to al-Qaeda) now controls key areas with its 10‚000-plus well-trained fighters

The Israel-Hezbollah situation shows another shift in middle-east politics. Both sides agreed to stop fighting in late-23; however its not going well: Israel broke the rules more than 50 times already. Benjamin Netanyahu keeps saying that even with the cease-fire‚ the conflict isnt done

The United States tailored the cease-fire to suit Netanyahuʼs interests

Three big issues face Hezbollah now:
* Getting new weapons while being attacked
* Hard time getting help from Iran
* Growing unhappiness in Lebanon about the war

The US role in middle-east keeps changing too. Current support for Israel includes $18-billion in military aid this year - but with Donald Trump likely coming back to power next year‚ experts think US policy might shift a lot. However‚ Saudi-Arabia could be key: they want peace with Palestine before any deals with Israel

The real fix needs a new way of thinking: instead of just military power‚ the region needs bottom-up peace-making. This means Israel should work on making friends with regular people in arab countries - not just their leaders. But with current politics‚ this might take many years