Russia's military spending creates a dangerous trap that nobody expected

In light of Donald Trumpʼs possible comeback‚ experts re-examine Russiaʼs military-economic situation. While many think Russia can keep fighting for years theres actually data showing otherwise

The economy looks good on paper: GDP went up 3.6% last year; unemployment dropped from 4.4% to 2.4% (which happened cause of military-related jobs boost). The defense sector got half-a-million new workers‚ and the army grew by 180k people. Russia says its making 3x more artillery shells than before

But theres a big problem hiding behind these numbers. The military-industrial complex cant keep up with battlefield losses - Russia loses about 320 tank and artillery barrels monthly but makes only 20. They have just two special forges that make these parts (each weighing 20-30 tons)‚ and getting more is hard since only one Austrian company makes them

• North Korea supplies half of Russiaʼs shells now
• They lose 155 fighting vehicles monthly but make just 17
• Defense spending takes 7% of GDP
• Military wages went up 5x causing inflation to hit 8.68%

The Kremlins choices look pretty bad - by late-25 theyll run out of key weapons. If they try to make peace and cut military spending it would cause big unemployment. Keeping huge defense spending will hurt other parts of economy. The third option might be most dangerous: using military threats to get resources from neighbors

Some signs point to possible future moves: Russia might try taking control of Black Sea gas reserves or Ukraines resources. They could also threaten European countries to drop sanctions or restart gas deals. Its like what Napoleon Bonaparte did in 1803 when he couldnt pay for his army‚ or how Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990

The whole situation shows that while Russia cant keep this war going forever their economic trap might lead to new problems for Europe. Western leaders need to think about whats coming next‚ even while dealing with current fighting