Trump's China plans leave US allies in a tough spot before 2025 takeover

In the last days of his term Joe Biden placed new tech-export limits on China which got a quick counter-response about mineral trade restrictions. This move shows a big difference between Bidens careful approach and whatʼs coming next

The current US policy of selective limits with China doesnt match what many western countries want. Most nations picked a soft de-risking path but avoided full separation from Beijing. Western leaders used nice-sounding words to hide their different views on China ties

Donald Trumpʼs upcoming presidency brings major change to this setup. His pick for trade chief Jamieson Greer (who worked with first-term trade boss Robert Lighthizer) wants full separation from China. Trump talks about putting super-high taxes on Chinese stuff: maybe 60% or more which could stop most US-China trade

• Trade limits might start right after inauguration day
• New emergency rules to change import taxes fast
• More tech-field limits beyond computer chips
• Plans to move production back to America

The effects are already showing up – Mexico is now Americas top import partner instead of China. But many US friends dont like this path: Germany wants to keep selling cars in China; Britain looks to fix its Beijing relations; Japan and South Korea need their regional trade links

Some countries try to avoid US anger about helping Chinese companies dodge these rules (like Malaysia did this month). But Trumpʼs team thinks its worth the cost: “We must cut ties with China even if it hurts for now“ as Greer said in Congress last spring

The split between US and partner countries keeps getting bigger. Europe buys more Chinese products now while America buys less. Japan still trades tons with China despite all the talk about reducing risks. When Trump starts his new China plan next year these differences will cause big problems for everyone