Wall Street experts show how Trump's trade plans might shake up your money in 2025
Market analysts share their thoughts on how new trade rules could change stocks and prices next year. Big companies that work with China‚ Mexico and Canada might need to re-think their business plans
After Donald Trump won the election markets stayed strong but wall-street experts say his trade-plans might cause some trouble. The S&P 500 went up about 26% this year; however big changes could be coming in twenty-twenty-five
Major banks are looking at how new rules might affect business: Barclays thinks company profits could drop 2.8% if trade-taxes hit Canada Mexico and China. Companies that make stuff or sell things to people (like stores) might see their money go down by 10% or more because they work a lot with those countries
Looking back at the last trade-fight in twenty-eighteen gives us some ideas about what might happen:
- Companies that make basic materials did really bad
- Safe-bet companies like power and housing did good
- Tech stocks had problems but bounced back
- Car makers got hit hard when news came out
Scott Bessent (who Trump picked to run the Treasury) makes wall-street feel better about things. But David Kelly from JP Morgan thinks these trade-taxes could make prices go up while the economy slows down - its not a good mix
Some big names could get caught in the middle: Tim Cookʼs Apple Howard Schultzʼs Starbucks and John Donahoeʼs Nike might face problems if other countries fight back. Still some think Trump wont push too hard since he likes seeing stocks go up
The worst case from Oxford Economics shows world trade dropping 10% but nobody knows if things will get that bad. Deutsche Bank thinks prices might go up more than expected next year - around two-point-five percent instead of two-point-three