If you've learned in the last year, central banks are pretty bad at predicting inflation. That may be the reason for hope.
Bank of Canada When senior vice president Carolyn Rogers warned Wednesday — Statistics Canada inflation datajumped to levels not seen since 1983 Shocked almost everyone with — Inflation was worsening earlier, she may or may not be right. Bank recordsspeak for themselves after the current surge in inflation could not be predicted
"Inflation keeps Canadians at night We know. We cannot rest assured until we reach our goal. "
Therefore, she said the Bank of Canada is "quite aggressively" raising interest rates on .
Watch | Businesses, consumers are struggling to deal with inflation. Companies are trying to manage rising costs.
The end of inflation.
Rogers and the Bank of Canada are , pessimistic that the price of will continue to rise (equipped with Rogers, "the team's temporary disbanded") We are not just looking at the future. But there are other voices as well. If it's always based on the principle of darkest before dawn, it may be time to look for some optimistic signs.
Inflation must eventually be temporary at some point unless you are confident that inflation is permanently out of control and all prices will continue to rise forever. The problem is: When is that point?
UK rail strikes and new data showing Canadians' increasing expectations for sustained inflation May hold concerns about the future outlook. But just this week, some of the main causes of inflation are the opposition that — food, oil and supply chain turmoil — may be starting to recover. There were signs of.
On the other hand, the central bank's rise in borrowing costs has not yet seen a strong impact on retail sales, but Canadian real estate has . .. The heat of her imaginary fireplace.
First, from a pessimistic perspective, , a strike to stop transport across the UK is a potential warning of wages, and thus the kind of force that could push up prices.
Fight for lost consumption
"Our campaign will run as long as it needs to," said British rail, maritime and transport workers. Secretary-General Mick Lynch said this week. Transport strikes begin a new "summer of dissatisfaction" as civil servant unions, including the health sector, fight to regain lost spending with an offer of 3% management wages in inflation above 9%. There is a concern that it may be possible.
So far, there are few signs of such destructive labor behavior in Canada, and the government may try to appease workers before it gets too far. For example, federal-regulated dairy farmers are allowed to raise prices in the middle of
Inflation expectations, workers and businesses, as Rogers reiterated on Wednesday. Confidence that prices will continue to rise is one of the most feared central banks.
Recent reports from the Canadian Conference Committee provide some good and bad news in that regard. According to the latest data in June, Canada's one year ahead forecast was "rose", but the three-year forecast fell and many Canadians are still on the team. It may be in a temporary state.
The latest Statistics Canada data show that core inflation has risen again, but there are still some key products where rising prices are a benchmark for inflation concerns.
When last month's data was collected, pump prices hit a new high at , but gas buyers this month, although prices are still unpleasantly high, so far. However, I know that it has fallen sharply. Inflation could be lower than next month.
Adjusting the items in the statistical agency's basket to include new and used car prices, while increasing the weight of the home, expects a temporary rise. Apart from future monthly data, it may decline.
See | Where is inflation the hardest hit? :
Canada's inflation rate rose at the fastest pace in almost 40 years in the year to May, Statistics Canada said. increase. Almost all prices continue to rise rapidly.
Recession does not support
This week, some of the most promising price data are from Agritel's food analysts who have shown global prices for grains. It was from . Oil seeds have begun to fall, but the fear of a recession, one of the reasons for the decline, is not fully supported. It shows that the fast-paced rate hike is having an impact.
Prices remain relatively high, but food producers around the world, including Canada, are more likely to plant fence posts from fence posts to take advantage of, pushing prices down. Helps if the weather cooperates.
Similarly, despite US President Joe Biden's promise to reduce gas taxes,oil prices are starting to fall. In the United States and Canada, business users continue to seek efficiency as oil producers are threatened with rising interest rates and economic declines, even when they are looking for new sources .
Watch | Biden plans to freeze the gas tax and lower the price of pumps .
US President Joe Biden has announced plans to lower gas prices. Clarence Woudsma, author of
, development of cargo, land and local economies, and associate professor at the University of Waterloo, Regarding the use of fuel by the sender, he states: When growth is recovering, it rises faster than GDP, and when the economy is declining, the opposite is true.
"Truck statistics are sometimes referred to as a type of canary in a mine," Woudsma said. "If we go into recession, companies either drop orders or adjust inventory because they're looking at what's coming in the next quarter."
This is what North American companies do. The recent supply chain problems we are facing could make it even more true. Due to the shortage, companies are filling up their warehouses as much as possible. They now have to try to unwind those excess inventories, inadvertently helping to clear the blockage of transport capacity required by other inputs that are still lacking. increase.