Commentary: South Surrey's by-election is a race to watch for all parties

BC Liberal Party leader Kevin Falcon has announced that his party will defend its seat in southern Surrey in the September 10th by-election. At the beginning of the month, you will face your first big test.

B.C. devastating liberals are struggling to regain a foothold in Metrohi Vancouver, where about half of the electorate is concentrated.

But history BC liberals must be seen as the frontrunners to win the seat. That's because the party that forms the sitting BC. Governments rarely win a by-election during their term.

Of the last 20 state by-elections dating back to 1989, his then-government won only three.

READ MORE: B.C. Prime Minister Calls for By-Elections in South Surrey

The current NDP government was won by Sheila Malcomson, who was able to maintain support for Nanaimo in the January 2019 by-elections.

The only other victory won by the incumbent government was the election of then-Prime Minister Christie Clarke, first he replaced former Prime Minister Gordon Campbell in 2011, then In 2013 I had to run for the Westside Kelowna constituency again. Lost to Vancouver Point Gray in the general election a few months ago.

While they were in power, the B.C. liberals lost to his NDP in his seven by-elections. His NDO government in the 1990s had never won a general election, and he lost six consecutive by-elections.

The worst form of government that lost a by-election was the social credit government led by Bill Vander Salm in the late 1980s. Six losses in a row, including four of his mounts, usually regarded as party strongholds.

So history is in favor of BC in this regard.

But history does not always repeat itself, and in the last state election in 2020, the There was a significant surge in support for the NDP compared to previous elections in the region.

NDP votes rose dramatically compared to the 2017 competition (over 3,000 votes person). The Liberals received over 500 votes, narrowing the winning margin from his 4,800 to 1,200.

As the 2020 elections made clear, Surrey's dramatic population growth, increasing urbanization and the establishment of a younger demographic are all working in favor of the NDP.

Horseback riding in southern Surrey has long been considered safe since BC. It's a liberal seat, but its days seem to be over. The NDP is now much more competitive in the region (losing to the constituency bordering Surrey White Rock by just 224 votes, his second closest result in the election).

Another wild card is the B.C. Conservatives fielding candidates. This can be very problematic for BC. Liberal Conservative voters since BC are more likely to come from the liberal camp.

In the 2020 election, Conservative candidates seem to have siphoned enough votes in four of the normally 'safe' provinces of BC. A horseback held by the liberals so that the NDP could win.

But in many cases, by-elections can turn into referendums on the performance of the incumbent government, and the NDP has consistently Liberals in BC polls, which enjoy a large lead in the United States, appear to be in considerable unease as people grapple with rising inflation and a precarious health care system.

Her NDP, with a strong majority, can afford to lose the by-election, but must win the rebuilding of BC. Liberal and its new leader.

Keith Baldry is the chief political reporter for Global BC.

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