Article author:
Associated Press
Steve Peoples And Aaron Kessler
Washington (AP) — Political change takes hold across the United States as tens of thousands of suburban swing voters who helped fuel I'm starting. Democratic interests in recent years are becoming Republicans.
Last year, more than one million voters turned to the Republican Party in 43 states, according to voter registration data analyzed by the Associated Press. Previously unreported figures reflect what has happened in almost every region of the country (Democratic and Republican states, cities and small towns) since President Joe Biden replaced former President Donald Trump. I am.
However, the shift is more pronounced and there is no more dangerous place for the Democrats than in the suburbs, where highly educated swapping voters who have opposed Trump's Republicans in recent years seem to be looking back. .. Last year, far more people switched to Republicans in suburban counties from Denver to Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland. Republicans have also established positions in counties around medium-sized cities such as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Raleigh, NC; Augusta, Georgia; Des Moines, Iowa.
Ben Smith, who lives in Larimer County, a suburb of northern Denver, Colorado, said earlier this year after increasingly concerned about Democratic support for compulsory COVID-19 in some areas. He reluctantly said he had registered as a Republican. Vaccines, lack of party ability to quell violent crimes, and frequent focus on racial justice.
"It's better to reject the left than to accept the right," said Smith, a 37-year-old professional counselor whose transition from the Democratic Party began five or six years ago. Stated. Before he registered as a libertarian.
According to political data company L2, AP surveyed about 1.7 million voters who are likely to have switched affiliations in 42 states where data exists in the last 12 months. L2 uses a combination of state voter records and statistical modeling to determine party affiliation. Party switching is not uncommon, but the data show a clear reversal from Trump's tenure, when the Democratic Party enjoyed a slight advantage in the number of party switchers across the country.
But last year, about two-thirds of the 1.7 million voters who changed their party affiliation moved to the Republican Party. A total of more than 1 million have become Republicans, compared to about 630,000 who have become Democrats.
Widespread migration of more than one million voters is a small part of all US voters and guarantees the Republican's widespread success in the November midterm elections. It's not a thing. Dozens of governors. Democrats hope that the Supreme Court's decision to dismiss the Roe v. Wade case on Friday will inspire supporters, especially in the suburbs, ahead of the interim period.
Still, the details about party switchers give a disastrous warning to Democrats who were already concerned about the macro effects that will shape the political situation this fall.
About four months before the election day, Democrats do not have a clear strategy to deal with Biden's unpopularity and the overwhelming fear of voters. Republicans offer few unique policy solutions, but the GOP has worked effectively to take advantage of Democratic shortcomings.
Last year, Republicans benefited from the prolonged closure of pandemic-related schools, which made suburban parents more and more dissatisfied. Inflation has also intensified recently, and the Republican National Commission has set a record for the Biden administration by holding a voter registration event at gas stations on the outskirts of Swing State, such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. It is tied to high gas prices. Republicans have also linked the Democratic president to an ongoing shortage of infant formula.
"Biden and the Democrats are in bad contact with the American people, so voters are flocking to the Republicans," RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel told AP. She predicted that "the suburbs of the United States tend to turn red in the upcoming cycle" because of "Biden's gas rise, border opening crisis, milk powder shortage, and increased crime."
The Democratic National Committee declined to comment when asked about the recent surge in voters switching to the Republican Party.
And Republican officials quickly acknowledged the shift's achievements, but the phenomenon gained momentum shortly after Trump left the White House. Still, the specific reason for the shift remains unclear.
At least some of the newly registered Republicans are, in fact, Democrats who went to vote against Trump-supporting candidates in the GOP primary. Such voters may vote for democracy again in November of this year.
However, the range and breadth of party switching suggests that something bigger is working.
Last year, almost every state (including those without a prominent Republican primary) moved in the same direction as a thousand voters became Republicans. Only Virginia, which held an out-of-year election in 2021, saw Democrats particularly on the rise last year. But even there, Democrats were wiped out in state-wide elections last fall.
In Iowa, Democrats held the party changer advantage by a two-to-one difference. This is the opposite of last year, with the Republicans leading by similar amounts. The same dramatic change is happening in Ohio.
In Florida, Republicans captured 58 percent of party switchers in the last few years of the Trump era. Now, last year, they command 70 percent. And in Pennsylvania, Republicans accounted for 58 to 63 percent of party changers.
The current advantage of Republicans among party changers is that they are particularly ferocious in the suburbs of the country.
AP found that the suburban "Fringe" counties had a greater Republican advantage over smaller towns and counties, based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention classification. Republicans boosted party changer share in 168 of the 235 suburban counties surveyed by AP last year, compared to the last year of the Trump era (72 percent).
These include the suburbs of Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Ohio, Virginia, and Washington. ..
The Republicans have also established themselves in suburban counties, where the CDC is concentrated in medium-sized cities and is called the "medium-sized metro." More than 62% of these counties, or a total of 164 people, have grown Republicans. They range from counties in the northern suburbs of Denver, such as Larimar, to counties in the Los Angeles region, such as Ventura and Santa Barbara in California.
Republican dominance was almost universal, but in some places it was stronger than in others.
For example, in Lorain County, Ohio, just outside Cleveland, switchers from almost every party last year became Republicans. It's even when the Democrats captured three-quarters of those changing parties in the same county at the end of the Trump era.
Some conservative leaders explain what Republicans support, not what they oppose to voters in the suburbs. I am worried that if I do not do a better job, the profits of the suburbs of the GOP will be limited.
Emily Seidel, head of Koch-backed grassroots organization Americans for Prosperity, sees her network directly seeing suburban voters away from Democrats representing "extreme policy positions." Said that.
"But that doesn't mean they're ready to vote against those lawmakers. Frankly, they're skeptical of both options they have." Said Seidel. "Lessons here: Candidates must make their point. They must give voters something to agree with, not just against them."
Returning to Larimer County, Colorado, 39-year-old housewife Jessica Cloels says she couldn't vote for the Democratic Party, even though she was a trusted Democratic voter until 2016.
She persuaded her to switch to her single "that moment", but by 2020 she said the Democrats "left me behind."
"The party itself is no longer a Democrat, but a progressive socialist," she said, blaming Biden's plans to eliminate the debt of billions of dollars of students in particular.
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People reported from New York.
