Canada

OPEC reaches consensus to extend oil cuts by three months, Algeria says

After Sunday’s consultations failed to reach agreement, sources said the group was also considering increasing output gradually from January, a position Russia backs.

“OPEC will probably agree to extend the current production ceiling for the first quarter of 2021, if the non-OPEC countries agree with it in (Tuesday’s) meeting,” an OPEC source said

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said differences between Russia and OPEC were not as severe as in early 2020, when disagreements led to a collapse in talks and a surge in output.

But Peskov said President Vladimir Putin had no plans to call Saudi Arabia’s leadership before the OPEC+ meeting, a move that in the past has helped smooth over any dispute.

OPEC+ has to strike a delicate balance of pushing up prices enough to help their budgets but not so much that rival U.S. output surges. U.S. shale production tends to climb as prices rise above $50 a barrel. Adding to the challenge within OPEC+, Moscow’s finances can tolerate lower oil prices than Riyadh’s.

Oil prices, which were down 0.5% around $48 by 1405 GMT , could fall as much as 10% if OPEC failed to roll over cuts, Deutsche Bank said in a note.

Oil had a bull run last week triggered by hopes for a virus vaccine and expectations of a rollover in OPEC+ cuts.

(Additional reporting by Alex Lawler; Writing by Dmitry Zdhannikov; Editing by Edmund Blair)

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