In the event of a Chinese invasion, Taiwan will be able to repel in most cases, but with significant costs for the United States’ forces in the Pacific, Bloomberg reported, citing a think tank senior official involved in an ongoing simulation study.
A group of US defense experts and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) conducted a simulation of a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The experts believe that Taiwan will be able to repel the invasion, but China will sink most of the United States and Japan’s surface fleets.
“The results are showing that under most — though not all — scenarios, Taiwan can repel an invasion,” CSIS Senior Adviser Mark Cancian said, as quoted in the report.
The experts conducted 22 rounds of simulation and in 18 of them, Chinese missiles were able to sink a significant part of the US and Japanese surface ships and destroyed hundreds of aircraft, according to Cancian.
The expert added that during the last simulation game, the US “lost” 900 fighter and attack aircraft in a four-week conflict, which is about half the navy and air force equipment. China will also “destroy” the navy and half of Taiwan’s air force in the early days of a hypothetical invasion.
The simulation includes the possibility of Tokyo providing Washington with expanded rights to use US bases on its territory, but at the same time excludes the use of nuclear weapons. The experts noted that the simulations conducted thus far are not even the most complex hypothesis.
“We have not run the most pessimistic scenarios, where China might conquer the entire island,” Cancian said.
The simulation games will run through September and the results will be made public in December.
The situation around Taiwan escalated following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taipei. China considers Taiwan part of its territory and opposes any direct official foreign contacts with the island. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that China will leave no room for the pro-Taiwanese independence forces as the reunification of Taiwan with China is historically inevitable and all attempts to use Taiwan to contain China are doomed to failure.