Papua New Guinea
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POPULATION PROJECTION

The National Statistical Office and United Nations Population Fund have released population projections for Papua New Guinea, providing national and provincial population counts through to 2050 by age and sex.

The projected population of Papua New Guinea will reach 20 million by 2045, and exceed 21 million by 2050. These figures can support in planning for the future needs of Papua New Guinea.

The figures are based on the 2021 population modeled estimates which placed the population at 11.78 million. Using mortality, fertility, and migration data from the National Population and Housing Census 2011, the Demographic and Health Survey 2006 and 2016-18, and the Socio-Demographic and Economic Survey 2022, the team at the National Statistical Office calculated an estimate of the national and provincial level population by age and sex through to 2050.

According to the new figures, life expectancy at birth in Papua New Guinea is expected to increase from 70.50 years in 2023 to 78 years in 2050 for men and from 72.87 years to 80 years for women. Coupled with decreasing fertility rates, the age-dependency ratio is projected to decrease from 70 dependents for every 100 economically active populations in 2021, to 52 dependents in 2050.

These projections provide an estimate of the composition of the population over the next 25 years. They are a tool for planning for health, education, and services, to ensure that services grow to meet the needs of the growing – and aging – population.

With these new projections, planners are able to utilize the latest data to inform the implementation of national and sub-national development plans for their communities.

The Population Data Project is made possible with funding support from the Australian Government.