After missing nearly the entirety of his previous two seasons, Justin Verlander bounced back in a big way in 2022 to take home AL Cy Young honors – the third time he’s won MLB’s top pitching award in his illustrious career.
He’s since taken his talents to the Mets, which leaves this year’s AL Cy Young race wide open.
Former Mets starter Jacob deGrom enters the 2023 season as the favorite at BetMGM to win the third Cy Young of his career – just ahead of Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, who’s yet to cash in this market despite five top-five finishes.
Those two are followed by youngsters Dylan Cease (+900) and Alek Manoah (+900), the only other pitchers dealing at shorter than 10/1 odds.
Here’s a look at the preseason odds to win AL Cy Young, with three of our favorite targets to bet ahead of Opening Day on Thursday:
2023 AL Cy Young preseason betting odds (via BetMGM)
Kevin Gausman (16/1)
The value has been sapped a bit at this number, as Gausman has drawn the highest percentage of tickets (12.3%) and betting handle (12.9%) at BetMGM as of Tuesday. Still, there’s a reason bettors are so high on the Blue Jays ace.
Gausman’s 3.35 ERA last season won’t impress anyone, but that doesn’t tell the whole story: he led the AL in FIP (2.38), strikeouts per walk (7.32) and swinging strike rate (15.5%), but he was hindered by the highest BABIP (.363) among all qualified starters.
It’s easy to see why: Toronto had one of the worst outfield defenses in MLB last year, which the team aggressively prioritized as a fix in the offseason. I see very little reason why Gausman would be hit with such bad batted ball luck again this year, which could portend a Cy Young effort in 2023.
Cristian Javier (18/1)
After years of showing upside as a future ace with the Astros, Javier is well-positioned to take over as a front-end arm for the World Series favorites. And he’s got the stuff to justify it.
The 26-year-old righty threw just 148.2 innings last year – just short of qualifying for the leaderboard – but he would have ranked sixth in ERA (2.54) and first in xERA (2.43) across the full season. Over his final 19 appearances, he led all qualified AL starters in strikeout rate (34.4%) while posting the lowest zone contact rate (79.1%) and seventh-lowest hard-hit rate (27.1%).
Simply put, Javier was virtually unhittable over the back half of the year, ending the regular season with 25.2 straight scoreless innings before dominating in the postseason, too. This price isn’t as short as it’s been all spring, but it’s still worth the wager on such an electric arm.
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George Kirby (40/1)
What’s not to like about the 25-year-old Kirby, who burst onto the scene as a rookie last year and earned the starting nod in one of the most important games in Mariners history?
The former prized prospect tossed just 130 innings last year, but he ranked fifth in FIP (2.99) with the fourth-lowest walk rate (4.1%) among all AL starters with so many innings. That came despite an unusually high BABIP (.331), which suggests positive regression on the way for the best long-shot bet on the board.
