Total Democratic votes in state House primaries this year are 5 percentage points higher than Democratic results in 2018 The year of the "Blue Wave" was worse than ever. But in his two years, 2010 or 2014, he outperformed the Democrats by more than five points in years when the Republicans had a hard-fought battle.
Party vote share in Washington primary elections has been a reliable indicator of general election results over the past decade. POLITICO's analysis of the results found that the past decade largely mirrored the rest of the United States.
Alex Hayes, a Washington-based Republican consultant, said, "Nationally, we expected Joe Biden's low approval ratings to create a wave of Republicans." The election result was close to neutral.”
Republicans still have potential pick-up opportunities in Washington, including in the tightly divided 8th congressional district. However, this result is inconsistent with the sharp declines in Republican approval ratings in 2010 and 2014.
Under Washington's primary election system, all candidates from both parties run on the same primary ballot, and his two candidates with the most votes advance to the general election. . Although fewer voters appear in primaries than in general elections, the total share of votes collected by each party in August has typically outpaced November results in Washington's House and Senate elections by a few percentage points over the past decade.
In 2010, Democrats won just 48.5 percent of the vote in the U.S. Senate primary in Washington, but then Senator Pattie Murray won the fall. and defeated challenger Dino Rossi with 52 percent of the vote. In contrast, his 2018, which was a strong year for Democrats, saw the Democratic candidate win 58.2% of the vote in the Senate primary, an easy win for the Senate. Maria Cantwell
The unofficial results of the 2022 Senate primaries, where Murray and Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley easily advanced, saw all Democratic candidates won 55.4% of the vote, down from 2018, but not by enough to mark a notable year for Republicans. Biden earned her nearly 58% endorsement in Washington in 2020.
The Senate primary results came just as the National Republican Senate Committee launched an ad in Washington earlier this month. Her first ad purchase was in six figures as she sought to expand the Senate battlefield. But for Murray to lose in general, it would have to drop significantly from its leading margin. In her more than 60 House and Senate elections in Washington between 2010 and her 2020, Democrats who made it to the general election were more than three-fourths likely to win their party's primaries. performed better than the share of During that period, she was the only candidate whose general election share of the vote fell by more than four percentage points compared to the party's main baseline.
The Washington primary was the latest political contest in the wake of the Supreme Court's June overturn of Roe v.
Tina Podrodovsky, chairman of the Washington Democratic Party, said the High Court's decision had "absolute impact" on Democrats and independent voters, Women, in particular, said they were motivated by the issue of abortion.
"Most of the conversation on the doorstep is about choice," he says, Podlodowski.
Washington State Republican Party Chair Caleb Heimlich acknowledgedDobbs's decision boosted voter turnout among liberal voters. Their party controlled Congress and the White House.
He also pointed to the effective spending of Murray's campaign to motivate Democrats to run for the primary. spent more than his $2.2 million on TV ads in July.
There were some better signs for Republicans in the congressional elections, with unofficial results showing the Democratic candidate received about 54.5 percent of the vote across his 10 constituencies in Washington. Did. This is down from his 55.4 percent in 2020 and his 60.2 percent in 2018. Still, the Democratic congressional candidate did pretty well for the party compared to his 2014 precinct. The statewide vote share was just 48.9% on day one.
District 8 — Where the National Republican Congressman was elected. Two years ago, Kim Shrieh was the front-runner in a constituency Biden won by seven points. (In 2018, when Schrier overturned the free seat, the district's Democrats had 50.2% of the vote in the primary.)
It shows that there is a close battle between Matt Larkin. A former Attorney General candidate who defeated several other Republicans to advance to the November general election.Schrier is still in a competitive position. But now that the Republicans have a clear candidate, they may be able to put more money into the race, and they will be able to compete with other Democrats. Similarly, they are likely to try to tie Schrier to an unpopular Democratic president.
Washington Republican Party Chairman Heimlich said the seat was a "real opportunity" for a Republican pick-up, not abortion. , suggests that inflation and public safety concerns may motivate swing voters and those who skip the primary but are eventually found to be cast. November poll.
"So far we've basically seen half the voters," he said. "The other half is still there."
