The MLB playoffs begin today, kicking off a new 12-team format that begins with four best-of-three wild-card series played entirely at the home of the higher seed — No. 6 Rays at No. 3 Guardians, No. 6 Phillies at No. 3 Cardinals, No. 5 Mariners at No. 4 Blue Jays and No. 5 Padres at No. 4 Mets — with no days off between games. Best-of-five Division Series will follow — with no re-seeding — featuring the top two seeds in each league (Dodgers, Braves, Astros, Yankees), who receive first-round byes.
Here are the top storylines to watch in this unique postseason:
The value of the bye
The new playoff format has given regular-season success its greatest importance since the first version of the wild card was introduced in 1995, rewarding top-two seeds with five days off and the opportunity to set their rotations while wild-card teams likely use their aces to try to advance, before entering the Division Series at a disadvantage. When the one-game wild-card format was in place from 2012-2021 — it was not used during the truncated 2020 season — only two teams (2014 Giants, 2019 Nationals) won the World Series after playing in the opening round.
Who can stop the Dodgers?
The most consistent team of the past decade just put together one of the best regular seasons of all time. The Dodgers’ 111 wins tied for the fourth-most in MLB history. They led the majors in runs scored and fewest runs allowed, and are rightfully favored to win it all. But their lone title in the past three decades (2020) carries the scent of an asterisk. Of the six previous teams to win at least 110 games in MLB history, only three have won the title.
Can the Braves repeat?
Baseball has never gone so long without a back-to-back winner. The most recent occurrence came during the Yankees’ three-peat from 1998-2000. Last year, the Braves won their first title since 1995 despite holding the eighth-longest odds entering the postseason. This year, the young and talented team that overcame a 10½-game deficit to win its fifth straight NL East crown — going 78-34 since June 1 — has the third-best odds (+500) to win it again.
What will Aaron Judge do next?
The likely MVP will forever live in Yankees lore after breaking Roger Maris’ single-season home run record and nearly winning the Triple Crown, finishing with 62 home runs, 131 RBIs and a .311 batting average. After turning down a $213.5 million contract extension and gambling on getting a bigger offer as a free agent this offseason, Judge proved a remarkable ability to perform under pressure. The biggest question may be whether he will see enough pitches in the postseason to take over a series. Unlike when Maris and Babe Ruth capped their record-setting seasons with World Series titles — starring for two of the greatest teams of all time — Judge may not receive similar help on a team that went 35-35 after the All-Star break.
Baseball’s best 1-2 punch
The Mets looked like one of the scariest potential postseason opponents when they handed three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer $130 million and paired him with two-time Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom. The impact of having both aces may be minimized by the Mets’ failure to secure a bye and set their rotation, but the team’s hopes of ending its 36-year title drought rests on two of the best right arms of their generation.
Can Dusty finally do it?
The Astros’ Dusty Baker, entering his 12th postseason with his fifth different team, leads the winningest team (106 wins) of his 25-year managing career. He is one of nine managers in MLB history to win a pennant in each league, but the ninth-winningest skipper of all time (2,093 wins) still is searching for his first ring. Every other manager in the top 13 in career wins has won at least one.
The last dance
Albert Pujols provided an unexpectedly memorable farewell season in his return to St. Louis, hitting 16 home runs since Aug. 14 — finishing at 703 for his career — to become the fourth player in history to hit at least 700. Now the all-time great returns to the playoffs with the Cardinals for the first time since 2011, when he won his second championship in St. Louis. Yadier Molina, the 10-time All-Star and longtime backbone of the team, also will be playing his final games. He has said he will retire after spending 19 seasons in St. Louis.
Welcome to the party
The Phillies ended the National League’s longest playoff drought by clinching their first berth since 2011. The Mariners ended MLB’s longest playoff drought by clinching their first berth since 2001. What will each team do with their long-awaited opportunity?
The midseason prize
The Padres were crowned the champions of the trade deadline after adding Juan Soto — among others — to a lineup with title aspirations. But in 52 games with the Padres, the young superstar hit .236 with six home runs and a .778 OPS. In 2019, Soto led the Nationals on an unlikely championship run, which began in the wild-card round and ended with the outfielder hitting .333 with three home runs in the World Series.
Join the club
Countless 12-year-olds wonder whether they’ll ever see the Yankees win the World Series. Mets fans major in pessimism. But several franchises have suffered worse and are still searching for their first championships, including the Padres, Rays and Mariners. Two of the past five titles have been won by first-time champions (Nationals, Astros). And since 2015, four other titles have been won by teams with championship droughts of at least 25 years. That should be welcome news to the Guardians — owners of baseball’s longest championship drought (1948) — as well as the Mets (1986) and Blue Jays (1993).
Today’s back page
Aces in Queens
Tonight, the Mets return to Citi Field for their first playoff appearance since being shut out by Madison Bumgarner in the 2016 NL wild-card game. After winning at least 100 games for the first time since 1988, the Mets (-190) are the biggest favorite in the four wild-card matchups despite losing four of six games against the Padres during the regular season.
Max Scherzer (11-5, 2.29 ERA), who will take the mound for the 27th time in the postseason (22nd start), squares off with Padres right-hander Yu Darvish (16-8, 3.10). The aces faced off in Queens on July 23, when Scherzer allowed two runs over six innings in the loss to Darvish, who struck out nine and gave up one run in seven innings.
Darvish, who also threw seven shutout innings in a win over the Mets on June 7, is 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA in eight career starts against the Mets, and was named the NL Pitcher of the Month for September after going 5-1 with a 1.85 ERA.
However, Darvish has struggled in his previous four playoff appearances, going 2-5 with a 5.18 ERA in seven starts.
Buck Showalter is expected to use Jacob deGrom (5-4, 3.08) if the Mets face elimination in Game 2 and start Chris Bassitt (15-9, 3.42) if the Mets win tonight. The Padres plan Blake Snell (8-10, 3.38) in Game 2 and Joe Musgrove (10-7, 2.93) in a potential Game 3.
A promising pigskin weekend
In other news, football is still king.
Here are the matchups to watch this weekend:
Saturday
No. 17 TCU (5-0) at No. 19 Kansas (5-0), Noon ET, FS1: Two unlikely teams atop the Big 12 should put on an entertaining shootout. The Jayhawks, ranked for the first time in 11 years, already have matched their highest win total since 2009.
No. 8 Tennessee (4-0) at No. 25 LSU (4-1), Noon ET, ESPN: The Vols represent Georgia’s greatest hurdle to another SEC East title, but a trip to Death Valley could kill those hopes. Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker could elevate his Heisman candidacy with a standout performance.
The Bruins will have a tough time reaching 6-0 for the first time in 17 years. The reigning Pac-12 champs are by far the toughest test Chip Kelly’s team has seen this season.
Sunday
Strangely, this is the first time in 15 years that a pair of winning teams will face off in England. The Giants have averaged just 19 points per game this season, but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers haven’t fared any better (18.8).
Dolphins (3-1) at Jets (2-2), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Jets have lost 12 straight games against AFC East opponents, but Zach Wilson gets the chance to give the Jets their best start since 2017 in his first home game of the season.
Cooper Rush has at least one more chance to convince the Cowboys he should remain the starter with Dak Prescott’s return looming. The Rams have another chance to sober up from their Super Bowl celebration.
Philadelphia will try to keep the only undefeated record in the NFL alive. Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray may produce more highlights than points.
Control of the AFC North comes with a win. The Ravens have trailed for just 14 seconds of their two games in Baltimore this season — and lost them both.
