The Post’s Jon Heyman breaks down the AL West:
1. Houston Astros
O/U wins: 95.5
Key player: Yordan Alvarez. The DH/outfielder is the biggest hitter in an outstanding lineup but a hand injury has lingered from last year, dogging him deep into spring training. When heathy, he’s one of the best hitters in the game. The Astros are great, but slightly less so when he’s unable to go.
Player who’ll need to step up: Jose Abreu. The first baseman, one of the sport’s great gentlemen, should fit nicely into the Astros clubhouse, but he’s going to need to show he’s worthy of the $58 million contract they bestowed on him. He should be an offensive upgrade over Yuli Gurriel, but Gurriel was a magician with the glove.
Name you’ll get to know: Hunter Brown. The hard-throwing right-hander idolized Justin Verlander growing up in Michigan and got to play with him, for a little while anyway. He will likely fill the fifth rotation spot at the start and has big potential. He looked shaky in his first couple starts of spring training, so they will need to keep an eye on him.
Biggest question mark: Lance McCullers Jr. The right-hander was the ace of the 2021 World Series runners-up, but he was dogged by injuries again most of last year. When healthy, he’s another All-Star caliber pitcher. Not many teams could weather his absences, but the Astros have so many great starters, they can afford to wait it out. When he comes back, he will round out one of the best rotations going.
How it’ll go down: Houston lost Verlander and suffered some spring disappointments, but still looks like a World Series favorite, with an extremely well-rounded team highlighted by a superb positional nucleus, talented young rotation, arms galore out of the pen and beloved manager Dusty Baker, who pulled the Astros out of one of the worst baseball scandals ever. There are new worries however. Alvarez is off to a slow start coming back from a left hand concern, Michael Brantley missed time with a shoulder injury and personal concerns and Jose Altuve will miss about six weeks after his right thumb was broken when he was hit by a pitch during the World Baseball Classic.
2. Seattle Mariners
O/U wins: 87.5
Key player: Julio Rodriguez. One of the game’s greatest talents, he became a superstar in 2022 as the Mariners turned it around. If he isn’t a perennial MVP candidate, it’ll be a major disappointment. Can do it all, and will.
Player who’ll need to step up: Jarred Kelenic. After posting one of the lowest averages over a full season in recent baseball history, the outfielder has given the Mariners hope again with a big spring. He’s expected to be close to a full-time player, though A.J. Pollock will take at-bats against tougher lefties. If the former Mets prospect, who memorably came to Seattle in the Edwin Diaz trade, doesn’t eventually hit, it will be one of the biggest scouting surprises in recent times.
Name you’ll get to know: Bryce Miller. He won’t start the year with the Mariners, but the big right-hander, the latest in a line of hard throwers from the state of Texas, should be there soon. The former sixth-rounder is expected to be a mainstay of the staff, and relatively soon.
Biggest question mark: Infield depth. Injuries to Dylan Moore and Tommy La Stella have thinned out the ranks, but it’s a good sign for the Mariners that this is their weakness. They have a very well-balanced squad that has come a long way from two straight dark decades.
How it’ll go down: The Mariners broke their 21-year streak of not making the playoffs and appear ready to be October players yet again. They have a solid team with many good young players, so the future looks very bright.
3. Los Angeles Angels
O/U wins: 82.5
Key player: Shohei Ohtani. Who else? The world’s best all-around player is the most interesting man in the sport for 2023. Whether the Angels trade him at the deadline (continuing owner Arte Moreno does not want to be the man to deal the great Ohtani) and where he might wind up as a free agent are two of the biggest questions going into this season. Ohtani surely has tired of playing for a losing team, but the Angels made so many great depth moves this winter they should finally contend. They wanted to win, and they also wanted to impress Ohtani. Whether they still have a shot to keep him long term is unknown.
Player who’ll need to step up: Jared Walsh. The first baseman had spine surgery and is hoping for a healthy 2023 season following a disappointing 2022, when the Angels’ offense really needed him. Their depth is much better this year, so they are better equipped to deal with injuries and underachieving players, but Walsh should be a productive hitter when right.
Name you’ll get to know: Patrick Sandoval. Pitching for Team Mexico, the left-hander whiffed Angels teammate Mike Trout and NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt in a victory over Team USA. The Angels’ starting pitching wasn’t the culprit in their disappointing 2022 season, and Sandoval is looking like a worthy No. 2 behind Ohtani.
Biggest question mark: Anthony Rendon. The third baseman has been off and on the injured list since signing a $235 million contract that’s looking like an albatross. He seemed healthy this spring, however, raising hopes he can prove worthy of some of that salary. Just in case, the Angels added Gio Urshela. They hope Urshela will fill a utility role, but he also would give them a solid third baseman should Rendon’s injury woes continue.
How it’ll go down: The Angels are a much deeper team than in recent seasons, with lots of prescient pickups and in some cases even cost-efficient signings. For about $100 million, they appear to have greatly improved a perennially disappointing team. Newcomers Tyler Anderson, Carlos Estevez, Urshela, Hunter Renfroe and Matt Moore round out a roster that looks very solid.
4. Texas Rangers
O/U wins: 81.5
Key player: Jacob deGrom. When he pitches, the former Mets ace is the best in the game. But far too frequently, the righty has missed significant time. Despite his lack of reliability over the last couple years, the Rangers bet big on deGrom with a $185 million deal, more than 50 percent above what the Mets offered, to bring him in as their ace. He was a bit slow out of the gate in spring training, but seems to be healthy. If he is, look out.
Player who’ll need to step up: Mitch Garver. He was probably the best hitting catcher in baseball for the Twins a couple of years ago. If he gets anywhere close to that, the Rangers’ lineup, already solid, will look that much better.
Name you’ll get to know: Josh Jung. The former No. 1 pick will get his shot as the full-time third baseman. He had a nice spring, and if he can carry that into the season, the Rangers may have one of the most productive infields in the game, with their half-billion dollar middle of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien and improving first baseman Nate Lowe.
Biggest question mark: With the rotation revamped and improved, but filled with older pitchers who have injury histories, the bullpen will need to be better than expected. Beyond deGrom, starters Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, Jake Odorizzi and Jon Gray all have had physical issues in recent years. It’s a potentially very good rotation, but it probably will leave significant innings for a bullpen that looks slightly unsettled. Will Smith was a spring signee, and he arrives with more experience than the rest of the pen combined.
How it’ll go down: Potentially, this is a very good team. But it’s a group that was largely bought, and it will need to jell, which is harder than one might imagine. They should win their share of games on talent alone, but in this division, it won’t be easy to rise to the top.
5. Oakland Athletics
O/U wins: 59.5
Key player: Shea Langeliers. After just 40 games of major league experience, Langeliers will replace the A’s best player, catcher Sean Murphy, at the most key position for a young team that will be depending on its young pitching staff. Langeliers has a big-time rep as a defensive catcher who has shown more hitting ability than first predicted and is already establishing a rapport with the staff.
Player who’ll need to step up: Cristian Pache. He’s one of the better defensive center fielders in the game, but he’s going to need to hit more — much more — to keep an everyday spot in a major league lineup. He came as a heralded prospect, but needs to start showing the ability at the plate he flashed in the minors.
Name you’ll get to know: Shintaro Fujinami. He was drafted higher than Shohei Ohtani as a kid, but signed with the A’s for $3 million this winter. The righty is a very hard thrower — 97 mph or higher — but will need to get things under a little more control. Matched up with Ohtani in spring and looked good. But Oakland would take just a solid pitcher.
Biggest question mark: Ownership. They’ve survived and sometimes even thrived on a bare-bones payroll, but this is getting ridiculous. We get that the stadium is a big problem, but the ownership seems to have ceased trying. Is it revenge for the failure to land a new stadium? Or do they want Oakland to beg them to move to Las Vegas?
How it’ll go down: Not well. If they don’t lose 100 games, it will be a surprise. Manager Mark Kotsay is drawing praise, but the A’s need a miracle worker.
