It’s hard to start the season much better than the Dolphins have after beating the Ravens and Bills in consecutive weeks en route to the conference’s only undefeated start. Their next test? The defending AFC champion Bengals, who finally got right with last week’s blowout win over the Jets.
Oddsmakers like what they saw from Cincinnati, which is dealing as a 4-point favorite at BetMGM as of Wednesday afternoon. That line has been on the move all week, and it currently spells value for the unbeaten road underdogs.
Here’s how we’re betting Thursday night’s contest, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.
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Bengals vs. Dolphins odds for Thursday Night Football (via BetMGM)
- Bengals -4 (-110), moneyline -200
- Dolphins +4 (-110), moneyline +165
- O/U 47 (-110)
Bengals vs. Dolphins prediction and analysis
Ahead of Week 3, the Bengals were dealing as 1.5-point favorites on the look-ahead line over the Dolphins. Since then, Miami beat the title favorite Bills as sizable home underdogs, and Cincy pummeled a Jets team it was expected to beat. So what is this line all about?
You’d have to assume much of the movement centers around the uncertain status of Tua Tagovailoa, who is questionable for Thursday’s contest with a whole host of injuries that have even drawn the attention of the player’s union. Per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, the quarterback is expected to play, but nothing is official yet – so place any bets with the most updated information possible.
If Tagovailoa is in this game, however, the Dolphins should win outright. And it’s disrespectful to price this game otherwise.
How could you draw any other conclusion through the first three weeks of the year? Tagovailoa has looked like a star in his third season, leading the league in QBR (82.8) while ranking second in yards (925) and third in touchdowns (8) to carry Miami to the conference’s only undefeated start. It’s not a fluke, either – first-year coach Mike McDaniel built an offense around his budding star, and the results are plain to see.
The electric duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have posted historic numbers through the first three weeks, as Tagovailoa leads all starters in adjusted deep-ball accuracy (76.9%) for the second straight season. He also leads the league in intermediate passing touchdowns (3) and owns the sixth-best grade via PFF in that range (10-19 yards). It should come as no surprise that this offense ranks third in yards per drive (39.2) and second in points per drive (2.8), even against one of the toughest early schedules in the NFL.
The Bengals’ offense finally came alive last week against the Jets, posting receiving gains of 56 and 45 yards after zero 25-yard completions through the first two weeks. Can they sustain that against the Dolphins? Josh Allen had his least efficient game of the season last week, when the mighty Bills scored just 19 points against this relentless front and talented secondary.
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Cincinnati’s struggles along the offensive line loom large here, as the Dolphins sacked Allen four times last week and rank third in pass-rush win rate (53%) – a year after leading the league in QB knockdown rate (12.7%). If Burrow doesn’t have time to throw, he won’t be able to stretch the field like he did last week, which has proven to be the single-most effective way to frustrate this otherwise explosive offense.
I don’t expect Tagovailoa and friends to have such troubles against the Bengals, who have faced one of the easiest schedules in the league thus far and still have shown lapses against subpar QB play. Since 2019, road underdogs have posted a 20-10 record against the spread on Thursday nights with 11 outright wins, and the gap between these two teams at present is too much to ignore. Assuming a healthy Tagovailoa, the Fins are well worth the points and even a sprinkle on the moneyline, too.
