The NFL playoffs are finally upon us. Whether you are rooting for a team or looking to pick some player props, this is one of the best football weekends of the year.
We have no shortage of prop selections on PrizePicks, but there are four in particular that stand out as good values.
Cameron Dicker over 1.5 field goals made
Who doesn’t love rooting for an offense to stall out in their opponent’s territory? And how can you not cheer for a kicker that has the last name of Dicker? In 10 games with the Chargers this season, Dicker has made at least two field goals in seven of them and is 19-for-20 overall, averaging 1.9 field goals made per game.
This week’s matchup against the Jaguars could lead to more field goal attempts for Dicker. The Jaguars have not fared well against the pass (30th in DVOA) and have been tough against the run. The Chargers have struggled to run the ball all season but have had no problem moving the ball through the air. Los Angeles should be on Jacksonville’s side of the field often but could be forced into some third-and-long situations once they get into scoring position.
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Daniel Jones over 39.5 rushing yards
Quarterback rushing props are always fun because they tend to have a much wider range of potential outcomes than running backs. There are fewer designed runs at the position, and a lot of it comes down to how quarterbacks react when the pocket breaks down.
Jones finished fifth among all quarterbacks in rushing this season, averaging 44.5 yards per game. The Giants are three-point underdogs this week against the Vikings, who tend to play a lot of man coverage. This is typically good for rushing production, as the secondary often has their backs turned to the quarterback. In their first meeting of the season, Jones had 34 yards on only four rushing attempts. We can expect that number to go up, as Jones has had double-digit rushing attempts in three of his last five games of the regular season.
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Dalton Schultz over 38.5 receiving yards
Schultz didn’t have the breakout season that many were anticipating, but a lot of that had to do with the fact that Dak Prescott missed six games. With Prescott back in the lineup for the last 10 games of the season, Schultz averaged 44.5 receiving yards per game. He also saw nine or more targets in three of the final five games of the regular season.
This week the Cowboys travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers, who are close to the league average in DVOA against the pass and in receiving yards allowed to tight ends. With a 2.5-point spread, the game should be competitive throughout and we could see defensive coordinator Todd Bowles sell out to slow down CeeDee Lamb, which in turn could lead to more targets for Schultz.
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Leonard Fournette over 72.5 rushing + receiving yards
Uncle Lenny has struggled with efficiency this season. In fact, he hasn’t averaged more than 4.9 yards per carry in any game since Week 1. However, efficiency isn’t a big concern if we expect the volume to be there this week against the Cowboys. Rachaad White has taken on a bigger role in the offense, but he’s a rookie that has lost three fumbles this season.
Fournette was a big part of Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl run two years ago, he has plenty of experience in big games, and Tom Brady trusts him. He should also be fresh after sitting out most of the Week 18 game against the Falcons. I opted for the combined rushing and receiving prop because the game script could dictate where he sees most of his touches. He’s capable of seeing 15+ carries if they are playing with a lead or 10+ targets if they are playing with a deficit.
