If the Edmonton Oilers are going to truly make a run at the Pacific Division title, they’ll need two points against the Arizona Coyotes on Wednesday night.
Not only are the Oilers a much better team than Arizona, but the Oilers are catching the Desert Dogs in a tricky schedule spot after they played last night in Winnipeg.
As you’d expect, the Oilers are a massive favorite at home in the NHL on Wednesday night.
Coyotes vs. Oilers prediction
There’s no way I’d lay this kind of wood in an NHL game, even if the Coyotes are in a really tough schedule spot.
The Oilers are 11-7 this season when they’ve closed at -200 or higher, and while that is a winning record, backing them in this spot has been a lousy investment.
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If you bet $100 in every game Edmonton went off at -200 or shorter, you’d be down $274 for a -15.2% return on investment.
But it’s not just the Oilers that have struggled as a big favorite this season; it’s been a league-wide trend.
NHL favorites that closed -200 or higher are 254-126 on the campaign, but they would have lost a $100 bettor $2,990 for a -7.9% ROI.
And even when the number gets out of hand, like on Wednesday, it’s no sure thing.
There have been 31 games that have featured a favorite of -400 or higher this season, and those teams are 24-7.
That’s good enough for a 77.4% win percentage, but once again, it’s a bad investment.
If you plunked down $100 on the chalk in each game, you’d be down $170 for a -5.5% ROI.
Trends can be useful guides to help make intelligent decisions in betting, and this one is telling you that just because Edmonton is a considerable favorite doesn’t mean you should chuck them into a parlay and expect it to be easy cash.
And it’s not like the Coyotes have been a bottom-feeder lately.
Since Feb. 1, the Coyotes are 11-4-5 and have the ninth-best points percentage in the entire NHL.
A lot of that damage has been done at home, but it still shows that this is a feisty team that can’t be taken lightly.
Additionally, Arizona’s counterattacking approach could pay off against an Oilers team that has plenty of offensive firepower but can struggle to defend in transition.
The talent gap between these two sides will likely show, and the Oilers will run away with the win.
But everything in betting comes down to price, and considering how this Coyotes team has played lately, it’s the underdog or nothing on Wednesday night in Alberta.
Coyotes vs. Oilers pick
Coyotes +360 (BetMGM)
