The final installation of Dana White’s Contender Series comes tonight, September 27, on ESPN+, starting at 8 p.m. ET.
We are sorry to see DWCS betting go away, as it has been a successful last three weeks. In total, we are 7-3 with a profit of 4.29 units.
In a lot of these amateur fights, the favorite’s odds are juiced to the point where they are nearly un-bettable. But they are also the most likely to win, so you have to find creative ways to back the favorite.
Take Bo Nickal tonight as an example. He is a -1500 (93.75% implied) favorite tonight and is -550 (84.62% implied) to win by KO/TKO or submission over Donovan Beard. It’s hard to find value on that kind of betting line.
But Nickal is truly that good of an MMA prospect, so it makes plenty of sense to back him in some form or another. Below, we preview Dana White’s Contender Series Week 10 with predictions and picks tonight.
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Dana White’s Contender Series predictions
Bo Nickal (-1500) vs. Donovan Beard (+900)
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
For all of my fellow jiu-jitsu practitioners, Gordon Ryan put on the most dominant grappling display at ADCC Submission Fighting World Championship this past weekend that we have seen in the sport since Rickson Gracie in the 1990s. Nickal and Ryan actually previously faced off in a modified rules grappling match, and Bo did, in the eyes of many, surprise some people.
Most notably, Nickal hit Ryan with an unbelievable suplex to tie the match at 2-2 near the end of the bout. Ryan would end up winning by triangle choke a few minutes later, but Nickal showed he is that good.
This is where we go with our bet tonight. Nickal will likely be able to pick and choose a way to victory. Submission may be the path of least resistance, but the knockout is his route to a contract.
If commentator Laura Sanko’s intel on his striking – which are rave reviews from his teammates at American Top Team – is correct, he should have an excellent chance to win this fight by KO/TKO as well as submission (Laura Sanko interview courtesy of Food Truck Diaries with Brendan Schaub).
Donovan Beard does not do a good job defending takedowns and could easily get victimized by a head and arm choke. It comes down to when, not if, with this one. Look for Nickal to win this one in the first round, and he could do it with ground and pound or by submission.
DWCS picks: Nickal vs. Beard
Bo Nickal wins by submission in round 1 +165 | Wins inside 60 seconds +450
Rafael Estevam (-215) vs. Joao Elias (+155)
Odds provided by BetRivers Sportsbook
The favorite, Rafael Estevam, battles Joao Elias in the flyweight division. Two very solid grapplers battle here as they both hail from the mecca of jiu-jitsu: Brazil. The grappling exchanges should be a ton of fun to watch, and in many ways, we will need to find out who the better grappler is.
Now, oddsmakers clearly believe that the answer is Elias, giving him an implied 25% (+300) chance to win by submission. Much better chances than Estevam, who comes in at 14.29% (+600). From a practical standpoint, Elias has lost by submission in two of his three losses – one by guillotine and the other by rear-naked choke.
Given the size difference (Estevam 5’8 vs. Joao 5’3) Estevam should be able to get this one to the mat. Whether he can hold the positions and avoid Joao’s armbar is what counts. Regardless, Estevam is a good value to win this by submission via a mounted choke.
DWCS picks
Rafael Estevam wins by submission +600 (BetRivers)
