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The end of the Roe v. Wade case may not hurt Republicans in Congress, but it could sting them in the state

(CNN)The Supreme Court has at least the largest decision,is Roev. Overturned Wade. Decade. The practical consequences of excluding the constitutional right to abortionare immeasurable. Therefore, you may think that there is also a political impact.

However, political conditions and recent research show that the medium-term impact is not entirely clear, but may not be as great as people think. The impact on the mid-term elections in November is likely to be felt at the state level rather than the competition in parliament.

Mayleakedand courtRoev. It was a groundbreaking decision in 1973 that legalized abortion nationwide when it was possible to overturn Wade. It changedthe voters' thinking about the mid-term. On average in major polls, a general parliamentary vote before the leak found Republicans 3 points and then 3 points ahead.
When I examined my enthusiasm, I saw the same lack of movement. According to a CNN / SSR survey, Republican voters voted about 10 points more enthusiastically than Democrats in the mid-term betweenbeforeandafter. .. This is important because the mid-term has a lower voting rate than the presidential election and you can decide who will vote.
One of the main reasons Roe's potential consequences didn't move voters at the time was that it wasn't the most important issue. According to aABCNews / Ipsos survey in early June, only 12% said that the most important issue in the mid-term vote was abortion. This is far behind the economy. The sum of inflation and gasoline is 48%.
It's hard to get people to care about other things when faced with record gasoline prices and inflation

Fictitious From to reality

Of course, all this polling was done before Roe was convinced that he would overthrow, and it was not clear that voters believed it. ..

According to aKaiser Family Foundation survey after the leak last month, only 22% thought Roe was very likely to overthrow. Multiples (42%) thought it was somewhat possible, and 30% of Americans did not believe it was possible.
Therefore, now that Roe has fallen, political fallouts can be significant. AQuinnipiac University surveyreleased this week found that 62% of Americans favor Roe. This included nearly 90% of Democrats, more than 60% of independents, and nearly 40% of Republicans.

From any poll, it is clear that the latest Supreme Court decision is unpopular.

Indeed, there have already been signs of increasing support for the right to abortion since the leak of the draft opinion. Roe's support has been fairly consistent over the years, but more Americans than at any time since the mid-1990s were in favor ofGallup's May vote(55%). Was identified. And for the first time, the majority (52%) said that abortion was morally acceptable.

This may indicate that Roe's overthrow is more important to voters than previously envisioned and could benefit Democrats. Democrats need to boost enthusiasm from their own voters, and they are also lagging behind among independents. Independents were 17 points more likely to say in a CNN / SSRS poll that their view of misconduct was more consistent with Democrats than with Republicans.

Still, it is not clear that abortion could approach overtaking financial concerns as a top priority for voters.

Furthermore, keep in mind that things look miserable to Democrats in parliamentary races. They are facing the worst deficitin a general parliamentary vote at this point in the mid-cycle since 1938. If a net loss of only 4 seats sacrifices their narrow majority.

A major change in polling would really be needed to save the majority of Democratic homes. And even in the evenly divided 50-50 Senate, Democrats are facing a difficult battle.

The best thing the party can expect is to limit losses in the House and oppose the hope of staying in the Senate.

Maximum impact

However, the end of Roe sends the abortion decision back to the state. And the impact on this year's governor and state legislative elections can be enormous.

According to an average survey ofby The NewYork Timessince 2012, residents of most states (34) believed that abortion was always or almost legal. These 34 states include Georgia and Kansas, where opinions on abortion opinions are closely divided, and Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where the majority clearly believe that abortion is at least almost legal. Was included. All of these states are hosting major governor races this year.

Democrats do not want to run for the economy and expect to work hard over abortion rights in these states. After all, Republicans are much more confident in dealing with economic issues (ie gas prices and inflation).

Definitely red Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana have Democratic Governor, deep blue Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermont.

Even this year, I witnessed crime becoming a major issue in thelocal electionswithout actually registering it as a federal issue.

The conclusion is as follows. Roev. The end of Wade may not affect the outcome of this year's federal elections. It adds wrinkles of uncertainty, but Republicans are still favored. State elections can be a place where the real impact of this Supreme Court decision can really be felt.