(CNN)The Supreme Court has at least the largest decision,is Roev. Overturned Wade. Decade. The practical consequences of excluding the constitutional right to abortionare immeasurable. Therefore, you may think that there is also a political impact.
However, political conditions and recent research show that the medium-term impact is not entirely clear, but may not be as great as people think. The impact on the mid-term elections in November is likely to be felt at the state level rather than the competition in parliament.
Fictitious From to reality
Of course, all this polling was done before Roe was convinced that he would overthrow, and it was not clear that voters believed it. ..
From any poll, it is clear that the latest Supreme Court decision is unpopular.
This may indicate that Roe's overthrow is more important to voters than previously envisioned and could benefit Democrats. Democrats need to boost enthusiasm from their own voters, and they are also lagging behind among independents. Independents were 17 points more likely to say in a CNN / SSRS poll that their view of misconduct was more consistent with Democrats than with Republicans.
Still, it is not clear that abortion could approach overtaking financial concerns as a top priority for voters.
A major change in polling would really be needed to save the majority of Democratic homes. And even in the evenly divided 50-50 Senate, Democrats are facing a difficult battle.
The best thing the party can expect is to limit losses in the House and oppose the hope of staying in the Senate.
Maximum impact
However, the end of Roe sends the abortion decision back to the state. And the impact on this year's governor and state legislative elections can be enormous.
Democrats do not want to run for the economy and expect to work hard over abortion rights in these states. After all, Republicans are much more confident in dealing with economic issues (ie gas prices and inflation).
Definitely red Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana have Democratic Governor, deep blue Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermont.
The conclusion is as follows. Roev. The end of Wade may not affect the outcome of this year's federal elections. It adds wrinkles of uncertainty, but Republicans are still favored. State elections can be a place where the real impact of this Supreme Court decision can really be felt.