The task at hand for Everton Football Club couldn’t be simpler, but the stakes also couldn’t be higher.
If the Toffees beat Bournemouth at home on Sunday, they’ll stay in the Premier League next season.
If they fail to win, they’ll almost certainly be relegated for the first time since 1951.
The good news for Everton is that they’re heavy favorites (-220 at the time of writing) to win the match.
The bad news is that their price is heavily inflated by the “must-win tax.”
Is the betting market overreacting to the circumstances on Sunday?
Bournemouth vs. Everton pick
Outside of this being a must-win match for Everton and meaningless for Bournemouth, there’s not all that much that points in the direction of the Toffees.
Everton have had some strong moments over the last few weeks — none more impressive than a 5-1 win at Brighton — but they’ve also looked out of sorts in a blowout loss to Newcastle and out of ideas in a 1-1 draw at Wolves in a similar situation.
Had the Blues defeated Wolverhampton in what was a meaningless contest for the home team, they’d be safe from the drop.
A lot of Everton’s struggles and inconsistencies can be attributed to injury problems.
Because of poor recruitment, the Blues have left themselves very thin in key areas, most notably at striker and fullback.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin, the team’s most important attacking player, has struggled to stay fit all season and is likely to miss Sunday’s tilt with Bournemouth.
All four of the club’s fullbacks are injured, too.
On paper, these two teams are pretty much equals.
Bournemouth is six points better than the Toffees, but Everton boast the better goal difference and statistical portfolio.
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The Toffees have a -21.1 expected goal differential, while Bournemouth’s is slightly worse at -24.7.
So if these teams are basically peers and Everton is banged up, why are the Toffees such a steep price on Sunday?
The answer is quite simple: Bookmakers know that money will pour in on a desperate team when its opposition has nothing to play for.
Perhaps Everton’s motivational edge is more than enough to see the Toffees to a victory on Sunday, but there’s no doubt that the betting value in this contest is with Bournemouth.
Bournemouth vs. Everton pick
Bournemouth +550 (FanDuel)
