The rapidly changing coronavirushas reached the summer in the United States. rice field. The number of infectious diseases is high, but the number of deaths is relatively low compared to previous incarnations.
COVID-19 still kills hundreds of Americans every day, but it's not as dangerous as last fall and winter.
"This will be a good summer, and we deserve this break," said Ali Mokudad, a professor of health measurement science at the University of Washington in Seattle.
As more and more Americans are protected from serious illness by vaccination and infection, COVID-19 has become more common, at least for now. It turned into an unpleasant and inconvenient disturbance for humans.
"I feel cautious now," said Dr. Dankaul, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Michigan Medical Center (Ann Arbor). "It's the first time I remember, but since it started, ICU hasn't had (COVID-19) patients."
As the United States reaches July 4, the United States The average daily death toll from COVID-19 is only about 360. In the same summer depression last year, there were about 228 people in early July. This remains the lowest daily death threshold in the United States since March 2020, when the virus first began to spread to the United States.
However, far fewer cases were reported at this point last year, less than 20,000 per day. Currently, it's about 109,000 and is probably underestimated because home tests aren't reported regularly.
Today, in the third year of the pandemic, it's easy to get confused by the complexities. With an increased likelihood of repeated infections, a significant proportion of infected individuals will face protracted symptoms of long-term COVID-19.
Still, for many, the serious risk of death is diminishing.
"This is because all immune systems have seen either the virus or the vaccine a couple of times," said David Dow, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins. Dr. Di said. Bloomberg Public Health School. "Over time, the body learns not to overreact when it sees this virus."
"What we see is that people, on average, get more and more sick. That's what Daudi said.
According to one influential model, 8 out of 10 people in the United States are infected at least once.
COVID-19 mortality was a moving target, but has recently fallen within the average flu season, according to data analyzed by Arizona State University health industry researcher Mara Aspinall. I'm out.
At first, some said that the coronavirus was not as deadly as the flu. "And for a long time it wasn't true," Aspinal said. At that time, people were not immune. The treatment was experimental. The vaccine did not exist.
Now, according to Aspinal, strengthening immunity has definitely reduced mortality during the typical flu season. Over the last decade, influenza mortality has been around 5% to 13% of inpatients.
The big difference between influenza and COVID-19: Coronavirus behavior continues to amaze health professionals, and it is still unclear whether it will settle into a flu-like seasonal pattern.
Last summer, when vaccination first became widely available in the United States, delta surges followed, followed by Omicron's arrival, with 2,600 Americans a day at its peak in February last year. Died.
Experts agree that new variants may emerge that can escape the population's accumulated immunity. The rapidly prevailing subtypes BA.4 and BA.5 of Omicron may also contribute to the change in mortality.
"Until these new submutants emerged, we thought we understood it," said Dr. Peter Hotez, an infectious disease specialist at Baylor College of Medicine in Texas.
He said it was wise to assume that new varieties would arrive later this summer and attack the country.
"And another late fall / winter wave," Hotez said.
Deaths may increase in many states in the coming weeks, but across the United States, deaths are likely to decline slightly, Corona on the COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Nicholas Reich, who co-aggregates virus predictions, said. With the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
"COVID hospitalizations have increased from just over 1,000 in early April to about 5,000 daily, but COVID deaths have only increased slightly over the same period," said the professor. Reich says. He holds a PhD in biostatistics from the University of Massachusetts Amherst.
Unvaccinated people are six times more likely to die of COVID-19 than those who have at least primary series shots, and the CDC is available in April data. Estimated based on.
Due to the rapid spread of the virus this summer, consider the vulnerabilities of yourself and those around you, especially at large gatherings.
"There are still people who are in great danger," he said.
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