Nobody would blame you if you did a double-take when you saw the odds for Friday’s semifinal match between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz.
Djokovic, a 22-time Grand Slam winner and two-time French Open champion, is a +170 underdog against Alcaraz, 20, who is looking for his first Coupe des Mousquetaires.
Perhaps your first thought when you saw the odds was that Djokovic may be battling an injury or showing some inconsistent form.
While it’s true that the Serb was battling a nagging injury during the clay swing, he’s not looked out of sorts at all in Paris.
Djokovic has dropped just one set through his first five matches.
He may not be 100% or at the very peak of his powers, but he’s not given much reason to believe he’s far off, either.
Is the price on Djokovic too good to pass up?
Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz pick
The rise of Carlos Alcaraz has been swift and it’s been impressive.
The 20-year-old Spaniard really burst onto the scene at the 2021 US Open and within a year he would be lifting the trophy at Arthur Ashe.
And even though the US Open is played on a hard court, everybody seemed to be on the same page that Alcaraz was the heir apparent to Rafael Nadal on clay.
That sentiment only grew this season as Alcaraz won titles in Barcelona and Madrid as part of a 12-match winning streak on the dirt.
Alcaraz’s run was ended in a shocking upset by World No. 115 Fabian Maroszan, but that result did little to deter the betting market.
Alcaraz was the clear favorite to win at Roland Garros, going off around +155 before Round 1.
And there was plenty of support for Alcaraz even at such a short number and a tough draw.
The Spaniard was staring down a three-match gauntlet against emerging clay-court talent Lorenzo Musetti, 2022 French Open finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas and Djokovic.
Nonetheless, Alcaraz was still getting money as a lot of folks thought this would be the last time he’d be near these odds before a French Open.
They might be right.
Alcaraz has been dominant through the first week and a half in Paris, dropping just one set to Japanese scrapper Taro Daniel.
What’s even more eye-opening is that the teenager has won 11 sets (out of 16 played) in eight games or fewer. He’s storming through the draw.
Alcaraz is also coming off a dismantling of World No. 5 Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals.
The Greek looked out of sorts, but that is likely because the Spaniard was playing at a ridiculous, unbeatable level.
And while Alcaraz was taking Tsitsipas to school, Djokovic didn’t have the easiest of times against a very game Karen Khachanov in his quarterfinal.
Djokovic lost the first set and needed to win a tie-breaker in the second to avoid going down 0-2.
The 36-year-old prevailed, but he’ll need to be at an exceptional level to beat Alcaraz.
It’s pretty clear that the price on Alcaraz is a bit out of whack — and Djokovic has taken some early money — but it’s hard to blame anybody for not wanting to step in front of this train right now.
Nonetheless, Alcaraz’s most recent performance against Tsitsipas — an elite player who struggles on return — has put some sell-high value into the semifinal.
Djokovic is miles better than Tsitsipas on return and will be much more willing to grind out longer points against Alcaraz, which should give him a fighting chance against the wunderkind.
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And while I think Djokovic is worth a bet on the moneyline pre-match, you can also split a stake and see if Alcaraz wins the first set and then get in on the Serb.
Djokovic is a master at making in-match adjustments and has a 13-2 record in the last 15 matches after he lost the first set.
The Bet: Novak Djokovic +170
