(CNN)Historical Victory For racially diverse and first-time candidates. Questions about the support of former President Donald Trump. Mixed bag for election refusals.
Consider this: The Democratic majority in parliament is very thin. The Senate is a 50-50 split (Vice President Kamala Harris's tiebreaker vote is in their favor), and Nancy Pelosi's dominance depends on a small margin.
This year, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are included in the ballot. In addition, 36 of the 50 states elect governors.
Four notable Senate primaries. There are a number of large nomination contests behind us, but the Republican primaries of Arizona and Missouri on August 2 and the Democratic primaries of Wisconsin on August 9 really mean in November. hold. Even later, New Hampshire's September 13 Republican primary may shape how competitive the battlefield state contests are.
2.Missouri's Republican primary decides whether the state will run for the election in November. Trump faces both tremendous pressure to support the disgraceful former governor from supporters of Eric Greatens and tremendous pressure to support alternatives, and many Republicans say I'm worried about the possibility of Greatens' election in a general election that should be a solid Republican nation.
The Republican field here is crowded. Among them are Ted Cruz, a prominent Republican senator in Texas, and Josh Hawley, Missouri, respectively. However, the more split the Republican vote, the lower the threshold required for the Greitens to win. This is a major concern for Republicans who want the party to quickly unite around his replacement ahead of the Primary.
3.In Wisconsin, the Democratic Senate primary forms an autumn match that represents the Democratic best shot in dismissing the Republican incumbent.
Among the running Democrats are Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, State Treasury Secretary Saragodrevsky, and Outagamie County executive Tom Nelson.
4. In New Hampshire, a large list of Republicans are vying for an opportunity to challenge Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan after Governor Chris Snune, Republican's first-choice candidate, has passed the race.
His absence pioneered a crowded primary area, including State Senator Chuck Morse, former Londonderry Town Manager Kevin Smith, and retired Army Brig. General Don Boldak failed to seek the nomination of another Senate seat in the state in 2020.
Former Governor Hassan defeated Republican Senator. Kelly Ayotte won only 1,017 votes in 2016, and maintaining a seat this fall is important to the Democratic Party's desire to maintain a majority in the Senate.
There are limits to election denialism.One of the new lessons for Republican candidates in upcoming primaries is that fixing the campaign to election lies is not always a winning ticket.
On Tuesday, voters in the Republican primary were Democratic Jena Griswold in the fall. He refused Peters' bid to take on the Secretary of State. Instead, they appointed Pamela Anderson, a former county clerk who defended the integrity of Colorado's postal voting system.
Therefore, while it is clear that Republican voters are very supportive of Trump, their willingness to entertain his personal dissatisfaction is limited.
Fetterman passed U.S. House of Representatives Connorlam in the Pennsylvania Senate Democratic Preliminary Contest, defeated the Republican Party in fierce competition in the U.S. House of Representatives, and looked sophisticated as part of a traditional politician. I did a nimble job for a veteran of the Marine Corps.
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Important note:What do you think of Trump's support so far? His support is clearly coveted in the GOP primary, but his role as a Republican kingmaker seems to be being tested.
Charian:I think you have to think about Trump's support in two different ways. There is a record of pure endorsements showing that he is doing very well. However, this can be a less meaningful tool, as it includes so much support for completely safe candidates in these primaries, where victory is almost guaranteed.
A more meaningful way to look at Trump's support record is where he endorsed in the highly competitive Republican primary. And in terms of his attention-grabbing Senate support, he has a pretty good track record, including JD Vance's victory in Ohio, Ted Budd's victory in North Carolina, and Mehmet Oz's victory in Pennsylvania. He also won Herschel Walker, Georgia, but he faced minimal competition.
But when Trump lags behind the candidate to claim that the ongoing lies around 2020 were simply stolen or a fraudulent election (which wasn't), he Does not tend to work as well. A classic example of this was the drafting and support of David Perdue in the Georgia Governor's primary. When incumbent Governor Brian Kemp cruised for victory, Trump suffered a major defeat there. It was a similar story in the Secretary of State's race.
In this way, I think we can summarize Trump's mixed record in the primary elections so far. Trump is still the largest political force in the Republican primary constituency, but it may not be the definitive force.
Important note:There are still many primaries in August. Which race are you trying to see closest to you?
She takes her place because Trump and his team have invested heavily in this race to defeat Chainy, putting history, democracy and the country above all else. You may lose. That's a pretty story.
Charian:I think it's too early to tell exactly how these big news-promoting events will affect the November polls. I think economics and inflation will continue to be of paramount importance to voters this fall, but the right and accountability to abortion on January 6th could certainly motivate some Democratic voters to participate in the vote. There is sex.
Republicans are not only the trusted base voters, but the most important middle ground.
