On the one hand, there is a great division between parties, even in factual economic problems. In an AprilCBSNews / YouGov poll, the Democratic Party not only said it was 41 percent higher than the Republican Party, but also said that the national economy was in good shape overall, but also better than the Republican Party. Also correctly said that it was 29 points higher. Employment in the United States has increased over the past year.
Specific questions about people's own behaviors and experiences have similar drawbacks. In a recent CNN poll, Republicans say they are 22 points higher than Democrats and will refrain from driving due to economic conditions, 25 points may report delays in purchases. Another study conducted this spring states that Republicans are more than twice as likely as Democrats to change their summer vacation plans to. .. Also, in a Monmouth University pollreleased late last year, the Republican percentage, which stated that grocery payments were at least somewhat easier, plummeted 38 points from 2019, while the Democratic percentage was 7. It has risen. point.
"There has always been a partisan division on the issue of achieving goals based on who controls the White House," wrote Patrick Murray, polling director at Monmouth. "But this major change in polls, largely driven by the Republicans, raises the question of whether we are measuring the superiority of partisan identity over an accurate self-assessment of the domestic economic situation. . "
The same applies to broader economic perceptions. Opinion polls revealed the relative impressions of the Democrats and Republicans on the reversal of economic power immediately after the 2020 elections.
"Unfortunately, the magnitude of the expected partisan division has completely dominated the rational assessment of ongoing economic trends," was carefully monitored by the University of Michigan. Richard Curtin, who heads the Consumer Emotions Survey, writes. An American in the economy since the 1940s. In the January memo, he said that the gap between the factions seen in consumer expectations between the Biden and Trump administrations was about twice that of Obama and George W. Bush's presidency. Said it was. "This situation can foster poor decisions by consumers and policy makers. While there are always partisan differences in priority policies, the overwhelming size and sustainability of the gap between parties is It has created considerable economic uncertainty. ”
However, the results are clearly influenced by the factions, but it is clear what exact form the effects are. Not. In one reading, division is primarily an example of a partisan cheerleader-respondents poll as a convenient opportunity to promote partisan loyalty rather than faithfully telling them what they believe to be true. using. In another reading, they were promoted by polarization, enhanced by the partisan division in news consumption, how partisan thinking is how many Americans perceive their reality. Shows that you have completely overtaken.
That ambiguity can make it difficult to understand how people mean to the voters. This is an important challenge for understanding public opinion about everything from vaccine denial, not just the economy. Sensitivity to political misinformation such as false beliefs that the 2020 elections were stolen.
People don't always speak literally, nor do they literally answer votes. For some Americans with strong political views, answering polls may represent an easy opportunity to show their loyalty aloud. This is an effect known in terms such as "partisan reaction" and "expressive reaction". "Just as people cheer for their favorite sports team and claim that the team's players are better,the author of a 2013 papersaid," The survey is. Gives citizens the opportunity to cheer on their partisan team. ”
When the urge to exaggerate clashes with partisan loyalty, it produces far more credibility than economic valuation. can do. The same trend may help to inflate estimates from the percentage of Americans who are willing to leave the United Statesfromtovaccines that are willing to resign. Number of unvaccinated workers-Both actions are easy to support in polls, but they are actually dramatic and painful.
It can also complicate efforts to measure Americans' willingness to accept political violence. This isamong political scientists who have discussed how the theoretical willingness to support certain political violence is linked to the support for a particular act of violence or the willingness to do such an act personally. The topic that caused some discrepancies. .. And partisan impulses can even lead people to deny visible evidence. In a 2017 survey, when Americans displayed side-by-side images of the National Mall crowd during the inauguration of Trump and Obama, 15% of Trump voters were sparse from the Trump event. A group of more people with pictures.
"The debate in people's hearts and minds is whether this is a party cheerleader or a genuine party-motivated reasoning, that is, whether people really believe in these things. It comes down to something. It's hard to know and understand. " Brian Schaffner, a political scientist at Tufts University and co-author with YouGov's Samantha Luks, said. "But the fact that as soon as the presidency changes from one party to the other, the sudden evaluation of people's economic situation is so different suggests that this is not necessarily a purely held belief. At least some of this is being promoted by people who are only using the survey as a means of expressing their support for the party. "
The tendency of some poll respondents to respond expressively is not new and is not necessarily strictly motivated by the faction. For example, the percentage of Americans who told Gallup that the economy was good or good shortly after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001 could have been a short match of patriotic resistance to criticizing the United States. , Soared from 32% to 46% for the time being.
However, in an era of high partisanship, pollsters and scholars have made various efforts to separate such expressive reactions from genuine beliefs. Oneexperimentconducted in 2008 is correct for factual faction-influenced questions (for example, how employment numbers and federal deficits changed during the Bush administration). It turns out that providing a small financial incentive to give an answer is sufficient to reduce the gap between the Democratic and Republican reactions. The authors quoted the results as an indication that "some (perhaps very much) of the partisan polarization in fact-finding responses is emotional and dishonest."
Recent workuses a technique known as a list experiment to measure the percentage of Republicans who truly believe that the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump. Did. In this format, voting respondents are asked to read the list of statements and then aggregate the total number they agree to, rather than registering their responses individually. This, at least in theory, robs pollsters of "the reward of telling pollsters something that expresses emotions rather than beliefs." The percentage of Republicans who reported believing that Biden had legally won was as low among those who completed the list experiment as those who answered the more standard questions. The election was illegal.
Asking follow-up questions helps pollsters better understand the strength of the respondents' beliefs. In 2011, aWashington Post poll found thatagreed with the false theory that Obama was born outside the United States. Not what they believed there was "certain evidence". More recently, in aCNN poll, 61% of Americans who falsely claim that Biden did not legally win the 2020 elections have solid evidence of the claim. They say they think, and 39% say they are just suspicious.
Data about people's actual behavior can also be validated for polling. One useful case study of this approach is the Covid-19 Vaccination Campaign in the United States, which has both a number of polls on vaccination among Americans and corresponding statistics from the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Neither data source is complete, but during the initial US vaccine deployment, the CDC numbergenerally reflects the overall vaccination ratereported in polls. The relatively low intake of Trump among voters as measured by the survey isgenuine
the set of evidence is that expressive responses drive the survey results. It suggests that there is no single answer about the degree. "One of the most consistent things I've found in my research is that none of these phenomena are all-or-nothing. They're all context-specific," said George Washington University's political scientist. Matt Graham said. He explored various methodsto measure the effects of expressive reactions.
Also, there is not necessarily a clear line between a belief held in good faith and a well-determined willingness to act as if that belief were true.
At a practical level, the differences may not always be so important. For example, in the middle of this year, both voters who honestly believe that unemployment is rising and those who are willing to act with sufficient motivation for the partisan Animus can vote the same. Highly sex.
But remember that public opinion is complex and the way people express their views on politics is not always completely literal.
