The ultimate game of poker is over, and not surprisingly, the winner is Aaron Judge.
After a year-long negotiation and 64 more home runs (including playoffs), the Yankees ended up expanding their budget and spending substantially more than they expected to last April.
The nine-year, $360 million deal will make Judge the highest-paid position player in baseball. Sportsbooks expected him to return to New York, making the Yankees -165 favorites to retain Judge. But at +300, the San Francisco Giants were every bit the threat that we thought.
And now we are left to pick up the pieces.
It was a move the Bombers had to make and one that will be celebrated by their fans. But is it enough to justify the Yankees’ position as the third-favorite to win the World Series?
As it stands right now, the Houston Astros are the favorite to win the World Series at +550, with the Los Angeles Dodgers right behind them at +600 and the Yankees next in line at +850.
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While you could argue that the gap has shrunk between the Astros, Dodgers and the rest of the field, since Houston lost Justin Verlander and the Dodgers lost Trea Turner, the Yankees still have plenty of work to do to feel confident that they can hang with the two favorites.
As it stands right now, the Yankees will return to virtually the same lineup for the 2023 season. Anthony Rizzo and Judge are back to combine with Giancarlo Stanton in the heart of the Yankee lineup. Perhaps DJ LeMahieu returns to form with a full offseason to get healthy, but the Pinstripes are in need of an upgrade on the left side of the infield and need to add a focal point to a bullpen that was considered the team’s soft spot in October.
In other words, the work is not even close to being done for the newly-extended Brian Cashman.
Which presents bettors with an interesting question: Do you think that Cashman will upgrade this team enough that they are worth betting on right now, even at the short price of +850?
Probably not.
For one, it’s hard to imagine that this number will move too much between now and Opening Day. Barring a stormer from Cashman, the Yankees will almost certainly start the season behind Houston and Los Angeles in the betting market. That should hold their price in this range. No need to rush to the window just because Judge is back.
The Yankees were one of the best teams in baseball all of last season, but they got to that point thanks to a historic season from Judge and a blinding first half from their pitching staff. Once the arms started to cool off, the Yankees began to trend down and looked more like a good team rather than an elite one.
And even though Judge is staying, and that is huge news worth celebrating, that isn’t an upgrade for a team that is still a couple of pieces behind Houston and Los Angeles. As they stand right now, the Yankees are a very similar team to the one that struggled to get by Cleveland and then got swept by Houston. In other words, there’s no reason to back this team at a price this short, especially when it’s unlikely to get shorter between now and the regular season.
