Trump has overcome everything that anyone could throw at the president, including allegations of sexual assault and accusations of profiting from his office. He spoiled the tyrant and threw rants on the world stage when he saw an aide imprisoned for corruption. History will remember him as the only president to be impeached twice. After effectively instigating a coup to steal lost elections, he left the office shamefully, almost breaking the American tradition of peaceful transfer of power.
Nevertheless, Trump's Teflon reputation has serious people who think they may re-enter the Oval Office after 2024. Especially given the brutal political environment that hinders the approval ratings of the Democratic Party and President Joe Biden.
That assumption is now more complicated.
The House Select Commission investigating January 6, 2021 has said Trump's attempts to defy voters' will and attacks on the most violent democracy in modern U.S. history. I drew a terrifying picture of incitement.
"And he is being helped by Republican leaders and elected officials who were willing to hostage this dangerous and irrational man," added Wyoming Republican.
The Commission is not a court, and its television story lacks the basic elements of legal proceedings to test the credibility of testimony, such as cross-examination of witnesses. But its devastating portrait of the president rampaging and trampling on the US governing body, which has been around for more than 200 years, still raises this question. Americans could return such a man to the Oval Office.
There are two major approaches to this question. The first is Trump's position within the Republican Party. The second focuses on how the past few weeks have affected his already suspicious appeal to the national electorate.
Trump's Sustainability
Despite his extraordinary ectenia of scandals, Trump remains a Republican driving force-and most handicap. Cap nominates him as Republican president in 2024. The almost mysterious connection between the former president and grassroots conservative voters does not seem to be compromised. He is still filling the rally, recently in Illinois last weekend.
If the House of Representatives gets a majority of Republicans in the midterm elections, it could be one of Trump's images. House minority leader Kevin McCarthy's dream of speaking depends on Trump's favor. This is one of the reasons why the former president's role in the disaster that occurred after the last election was bleached for 17 months.
A senior Republican who did not support Trump's second impeachment warned that Hutchinson's testimony would lead to prosecution under the oath that Trump tried to grab under the oath. .. The handle and secret service agent of his armored SUV on January 6th because he wanted to go to the Capitol.
Still, the fact that Republicans shocked by these events are willing to publicize their feelings, and the silence of the House GOP leadership, is Trump's lasting power in the party. I talked about. Even if his image is dented, Republicans hoping for a political future have not yet crossed him.
First, the former president may want to prevent potential Republican rivals, including Pence, from gaining momentum. And if he has already launched a campaign, it would be easier for Trump to portray a potential accusation against him as a political motivation.
Other politicians accused of part of Trump's misconduct have no political future. But the ridiculous behavior of the former president and the willingness to burn the institution are at the heart of his charm.
Tim Miller, a former Republican operative who defeated the party over Trump, has a solid incentive structure to prevent GOP politicians from confronting Trump after Hutchinson's testimony. I explained.
"They decided that staying within the game and their social circle and owning libs is more important than doing the right thing for the country," Miller said on Tuesday. Said on CNN.
"The reason they can avoid it is what Republican voters want. Republican voters want to increase their dissatisfaction and prejudice, and the politicians who give it to them. Will be rewarded, "Miller added. The author of the new book, "Why We Did It: Travelers from the Republican Road to Hell."
However, the first upset of the 2024 Republican presidential election begins prior to the November midterm elections, so a broader Republican coalition is ready to sign up for the next season of the Trump Show. Is natural.
Trump's Wilderness is an important element of his charm, but a Republican who may be even more effective in carrying out his populist "America First" agenda in terms of cultural war issues. There is. For example, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is worth tackling issues such as attacking the media, transgender rights, racial education in schools, and the dismantling of the Covid-19 protocol in destroying Trump's base. I know But he also brings relative discipline to the exercise of executive branch that the former president has always lacked.
Republican Senators Clutch, such as Josh Hawley in Missouri and Tom Cotton in Arkansas, can provide their own strong vision of conservatism and cultural warfare. And Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, who won the Governor's Mansion in Byden just a year ago, pioneered a new conservative brand from Trump with his arm length.
It's too early to say how this works in the potential 2024 primary. However, in a recent poll in New Hampshire, DeSantis had a huge impact on Republican politics.
Still, some of Trump lacks potential Republican rivals. When he was in the White House, he was a 2016 primary and Republican apostate and a bond between the magnetism and basic conservative voters he used to defeat his enemies.
The main insight into the 2022 campaign season so far is that there may be more capable messengers to the political beliefs of Trump's signature. But for their own political future, no Republican hopeful to come to the king in 2024 can be overlooked.
Trump's malaise
Here are some hints that some Republican voters are starting to get tired of Trump's relentless focus on the last election. ..
Still, the trend of election lies is not completely deadlocked. Republican voters in Pennsylvania have selected Senator Doug Mastriano, a denial of the Arch election, as a candidate for governor. And in Nevada, election supporter Jim Marchant could win the Republican Secretary of State's nomination and set him to oversee the state's 2024 elections if he wins in November. ..
Conservative media may be protecting viewers from the full impact of the Commission's hearing, but the out-of-control photo of the former president is more than rejected after all. He before him trying to take power and the riots of the Capitol that could further hurt him among moderate voters.
But, of course, elections are not held in a vacuum. If he were a Republican candidate and Biden was making this vow to be reelected, Trump would be running against an enemy who was already skeptical because of his age. Biden will be 81 years old in November 2024. Trump is slightly younger at the age of 78.With the current president's approval rate of less than 40% and Americans dissatisfied with high inflation and record gas prices, every Republican candidate has a strong chance. Victory if conditions are not improved.
Suburban voters who left Trump in 2020 are badly hurt, even if another Republican is better placed to get them back.
For now, those who want to forbid Trump from returning to power are greatly helped by a special committee and a stronger case than ever before he is unfit for work. I've been.
"Republicans can neither be loyal to Donald Trump nor pledge allegiance to the Constitution," Chainy said in California, challenging his party to reject Trump altogether. ..
