Democrats have a lot to learn from the 2022 midterms. While they avoided the worst of the losses this cycle, a strategy that continues to stoke fear and downplay voter concerns will make for a tough 2024 campaign.
But the bigger lesson is for Republicans, who need to get their house in order if they want to be competitive in two years.
Democrats tried as hard as they could to make the midterms a referendum on Trump, despite the fact it’s been half a decade since he was elected to office. While many looked at the move as a desperate, fear-based strategy, it seemed to have made a difference at the margins, preventing a full red wave.
Trump endorsements did little to help Republican candidates. His success rate was about the same as a coin flip, picking three out of eight winning governors and six out of 11 US senators, with one US Senate race — in Georgia — still undecided. Across the US, candidates who denied the results of the 2020 election and ran for US Senate, governor or state election chief were more likely to lose than prevail. Just 22 out of 53 deniers won those seats, rebuking the Trump brand of electoral politics.
Rep. Lauren Boebert is an excellent example of this admonishment from American voters.
Boebert is the poster child for the MAGA brand of Republicanism. She denied the 2020 election results and antagonized her political opponents as a full-time job, such as when she heckled President Biden during his State of the Union speech as he called for more help for US veterans. Her Colorado district — rated as R+7 — didn’t appear on any list of competitive House races. In 2020, she won her seat by nearly 6 points and should have been reelected this year without any effort.
Yet, it took over a week for Boebert to be declared the winner by just 554 votes, and the count only ceased when her Democratic challenger, Adam Frisch, opted not to proceed with an automatically triggered recount. The closeness of the race was wholly unexpected and has little explanation other than Boebert’s Republican base rejecting her divisive approach.
During his time in office, President Donald Trump made headlines for his unconventional moves and social gaffes — and Trump himself may be personally unlikeable — but his administration pursued policy that has created long-lasting positive change. Under Trump, the US conducted the first defense spending audit, creating accountability for our largest category of discretionary spending. During his time at the helm, great steps were made toward more peaceful diplomatic relationships in the Middle East. He doubled the standard tax deduction, creating a lower tax burden for middle class families.
But two years after his re-election loss, Republicans need a Marie Kondo-style cleanup. A recent poll found that less than half of Republicans would back Trump in a 2024 primary and his current popularity rating is lower than Biden’s.
To be clear, Trump’s brand does not represent the majority of conservatives. While the left desperately wants to conflate Trump with the GOP and free-market policies, these are vastly different matters, and many Americans realize that. Going into the midterms, voters had more trust in Republicans and their policy approaches on the economy, crime and immigration. Americans are excited about school choice while the Democrats continue to support teachers’ unions that want to keep everyone boxed into troubled traditional systems.
And Americans are voting with their feet, leaving blue states like California, New York, Illinois and Massachusetts in droves for red states like Texas, Florida and Arizona that embrace conservative policy.
The ten most popular governors in the US, including Larry Hogan, Chris Sununu and Ron DeSantis, are all Republicans but hail from red, blue and purple states alike. They are liked because they get things done, which includes creating and maintaining relationships with their political opposition, a feat that is impossible for Trump.
Republicans have many reasons to be optimistic about their chances in two years. But if they do not fully refocus their brand away from political mudslinging and fomenting distrust in our institutions, and instead move toward positive, solutions-oriented policy, they are likely to be equally, if not more, disappointed at the next presidential election.
Even Boebert seems to have woken up. Asked by a Denver news station recently if she is still a “huge supporter” of Trump, she wouldn’t say if she’d back his third run for president. But she enthusiastically added: “I love Governor Ron DeSantis. He is America’s governor.”
Erin Norman is the Lee Family Fellow and Senior Messaging Strategist at State Policy Network.
