After losing out on the NL East, the Mets will dive right into the playoffs Friday in a best-of-three wild-card series against the Padres at Citi Field.
Buck Showalter has his best three pitchers lined up for the series, but that was also the case last weekend in Atlanta when the Mets got swept despite starting Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt. They’ll be hoping for a better turn this weekend, with the stakes even higher.
The Padres, who were hailed as the trade deadline winners this summer but played only slightly better than .500 baseball since then, won the regular-season series against the Mets, 4-2. This marks the first-ever playoff meeting between the two teams.
The Post’s Greg Joyce takes a look at how the Mets and Padres match up for the playoff showdown:
At the plate
Getting on base: The Mets ended the regular season with the majors’ second-highest on-base percentage at .332 and second-highest batting average at .259. Both of those numbers got a big boost from Jeff McNeil, who captured the National League batting title (.326) and has been on fire for the second half of the season. But the Mets will likely be sorely missing Starling Marte, who was an integral piece near the top of the lineup, which hasn’t quite been the same since he landed on the injured list on Sept. 10. The Padres (.241 AVG and .318 OBP) have one of the best in the game at getting on base in Juan Soto, even though he has largely been quiet since coming over in a blockbuster trade.
Edge: Even
Power: The long ball is critical in October, but neither of these teams specialize in it. The Mets clubbed 171 home runs during the regular season, but the Padres were even quieter with just 153 — the 10th-fewest in the big leagues. Pete Alonso (40 home runs) is the main source of power for the Mets, but Francisco Lindor (26) provided a strong second punch while a hot finish got Eduardo Escobar to 20. For the Padres, Manny Machado (32) is most responsible for lowering the boom, with eight of his homers coming in the final month of the season.
Edge: Mets
On the basepaths
Both teams are in the bottom 10 in stolen bases this season, with the Mets swiping 62 (on 84 attempts) and the Padres 49 (on 71 attempts). But Marte was responsible for 18 of the Mets’ steals, leaving Lindor (16) as their only healthy player with double-digit steals. Still, speed specialist Terrance Gore looms as the ultimate pinch-running weapon. Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim (12) was the only Padre to steal double-digit bases. But what the Padres lack in speed they make up in smarts, as FanGraphs’ baserunning metric graded them ninth overall (5.6 BSR) while the Mets were 25th (-11.2 BSR).
Edge: Even
In the field
Infield: The biggest disparities in this area are at third base and catcher. The Padres have the upper hand at third base, where Machado recorded seven Outs Above Average (per Baseball Savant) to Escobar’s minus-seven. Behind the plate, the Mets’ tandem of Tomas Nido and James McCann gets graded well for their framing (both in the top 25 of Baseball Savant’s Catcher Framing Runs) while the Padres’ Austin Nola is in the bottom five among qualified catchers.
Edge: Even
Outfield: The Padres have a strong outfield of (from left to right) Jurickson Profar, Jose Azocar/Trent Grisham and Soto, forming a unit that has recorded 16 Outs Above Average — fifth-best in MLB. Grisham is one of the best defensive center fielders in the game if the Padres can afford to put his scuffling bat in the lineup. This is another area where not having Marte hurts the Mets, as he had settled in nicely in right field. Brandon Nimmo has made strides in center, but Mark Canha is below-average in left.
Edge: Padres
Bench
How the Mets construct their bench will be intriguing, led by the possibility of 20-year-old Francisco Alvarez delivering an inexperienced but high-potential right-handed bat. Having Luis Guillorme as a versatile defensive replacement, if he isn’t starting at second base, is key, as is Gore’s speed. Wil Myers offers the Padres a quality bat that can play multiple positions, but they don’t have much depth behind him.
Edge: Mets
On the mound
Rotation: Scherzer will start Game 1, leaving the Mets with the option of whether to go to deGrom or Bassitt for Game 2 depending on whether or not it is a potential elimination game. Either way, the trio had a bad last weekend against the Braves but largely have been one of the best units during the season — when healthy, as deGrom’s recent blister issue bears watching. Yu Darvish will start Friday for the Padres, followed by (in some order) Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove. The trio has combined for a 3.11 ERA (to Scherzer-deGrom-Bassitt’s slightly better 2.94), though the lefty Snell has been especially lights-out of late.
Edge: Even
Bullpen: Edwin Diaz has been the most dominant closer in the majors this season, striking out 118 of the 235 batters he faced across 62 innings. The bigger question is how the Mets get the ball to him, but Adam Ottavino has been mostly dependable and Trevor May has been better of late. The Mets’ lack of a trustworthy lefty (Joely Rodriguez or David Peterson are their only options) could come back to hurt, especially with Soto in the opposing lineup. Padres closer Josh Hader initially struggled upon being traded to San Diego but finished strong. Similarly to the Mets, the Padres’ bridge to Hader is less certain, but they have leaned on righties Luis Garcia and Robert Suarez.
Edge: Even
Manager
Buck Showalter and Bob Melvin are two veterans (each named Manager of the Year three times during their careers) who both have playoff experience under their belt, though neither has advanced further than a Championship Series.
Edge: Mets
Intangibles
The Mets have the advantage of playing the whole series in front of their home crowd. While the disappointment of not winning the NL East is still fresh, if they can leave that in the past and get back to what won them 101 games during the regular season, they should have the upper hand in this series.
Edge: Mets
