This season could be a special season for the Yankees slugger Aaron Judge. He led the major with 29 home runs on Friday. He played in 75 of the 77 Yankees games and started 73. If he stays healthy, he will be at the pace of playing 158 games with 154 starts.
The judge hit one home run every 9.9 at bats. This is an odds favorite for winning a home run crown at -155. But with three months left in the regular season, is he still worth it at the current price? Or maybe you need to find another challenger.
Let's dig into the numbers.
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After pondering the judge's stats, one of the highlights is that he created six multi-home run games this season. In context, of the 23 Dinger and the third player associated second, only four Mike Trout have three or more multi-home run games.
Judges are currently hitting one home run every 2.66 games. His 154 start pace is two more than his 2017 career record. At present, the judges are also moving at a pace of hitting 58 home runs.
When the judge got off to 152 home runs in 2017, he hit 52 home runs. Based on these numbers, my numbers predict that he will approach 54 home runs, so at least some regression could be seen. As a result, a home run crown mix could require a minimum of 50 dinger this season.
Interestingly, despite hitting 52 home runs to lead AL in 2017, the judges didn't lead the majors. The honor was given to his current teammate, Giancarlo Stanton. Giancarlo Stanton hit 59 Dinger at the NL Marlins. For July of the season, Stanton hit 21 home runs and the judge hit 28 home runs. This year, seven home runs will be a good sign for players who are slowing down.
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One player within the 7 home runs behind the judge is the Mets Slugger Pete Alonso. Alonso hit 22 home runs on Friday, setting the third shortest odds of +700 on home runs. In the 2019 rookie season, Alonso mashed up 53 Dinger and broke the 2017 rookie home run record.
There is no doubt that Alonso is a player who can heat up in a hurry. Who can forget his performance in 2019, which defeated Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with 23 home runs in the final round of the home run competition? Or, he was repeated as a Homelander Bee Champion in 2021 with six consecutive home runs that hit during the bonus time.
Alonso chases the judge in a home run race, but it's worth noting that the Mets slugger continues to evolve as a batter. .. His batting average of .280 is a career high, and according to FanGraphs' StatCast, Alonso's batting average is 45.4%, higher than 2019 (42.2), which set a rookie home run record.
As a result, considering that Alonso's current odds are +700, I think it's worth a look. Expect a hot summer in New York where both judges and Alonso are competing for a home run crown.