At this week's G7 Summit, the goal of the quaint Bavarian town of Schloss Ermau is for the wealthiest countries in the world to unite on behalf of Ukraine. It was to guarantee that we would continue. It seems to have succeeded. The United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Canada, Japan, and the European Unionall agreed thatwould seek additional ways to increase sanctions pressure on the Russian economy, {7. } Is the higher tariff on Russian products, including. But if Western-led sanctions against Russia were intended to end Vladimir Putin's war of aggression in Ukraine or undertake negotiations with the Ukrainian government on the possibility of resolving the dispute, the action would be I failed. It keeps failing.
Washington and Brussels officials may not want to hear that, but the facts are clear. Putin has promised to prosecute a war in Ukraine today, as on the first day of the invasion. The Russian president has calculated that calling it quit in Ukraine would have a threatening impact on Russia's geopolitical position.
This is hard to understand for many in the West, let alone accept it. When it comes to economic reality, there is no doubt that Western-led sanctions campaigns are having a negative impact on Russia's business environment. Over 1,000 multinationalshave reduced their operations in Russia or have left the country altogether. The US, EU,, and Japan's collaborative decision onis an unprecedented move to blockhalf of Russia's foreign exchange reserves of $ 640 billion. did. Major economy. Russian billionaires associated with Putin are becoming more and morepersona non gratain the international financial system.Russia's $ 30 billion in assets, including yachts, luxury homes and private planes, arefrozen. Export restrictions on US technologies such as microchips will undermine Russia's ability to remain competitive in the global market and hinder innovation for many years to come.
Russia's harsh economic outlook has also packed up and left thousands of highly skilled IT workers, causing a brain drain in one of the world's most profitable industries. rice field. Some are from the US and EU. Sanctions are expected to eliminate Russia's economic growth for 15 yearsMoscowhas also defaulted on external debtfor the first time in more than a century.
But the problem is that bad financial news hasn't hit Putin's strategic calculations of war. After relatively calm, Russian aerial and missile attacks resumed in Kieu this week, despite Russian troops withdrawing from the area in April. On June 25, dozens of Russian missiles rainedon multiple targetsin western and northern Ukraine. In a particularly vicious attack on June 27, Russian bombers fired at a crowded shopping mall in the city of Clementuk in central Ukraine, killing at least 13 people
Russian troops are also making slow but indisputable progress in the eastern part of the Donbus border, which is now their main effort and their advantage when the Ukrainian troops are under high stress. I want to push up. The capture of Severodonetsk after weeks of relentless bombardment, and the continued efforts of Russian troops surrounding Ukrainian defenders in Lysychansik, herald a larger Russian attack on Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Five months after the war, the Ukrainians, who face hundreds of casualties a day, are in a difficult time, and Putin knows it. Even if additional sanctions are imposed when Putin's army is finally showing some momentum, it will not force a diversion.
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Russia is also , Before and since the war, to protect its economy. Moscow is increasingly separated from Europe, diversifying its customer base and exporting oil to energy-intensive Chinaand India. These countries are not bound by Western-led sanctions. Russians offer a 30%discount on oil on, and these deals are too good to miss when inflation and high prices come to mind.
Moreover, sanctions are not free for other parts of the world, especially for the poor countries that depend on Ukraine and Russia for grain and wheat. Russia's continued closure of Ukrainian ports, in addition to financial restrictions on Russian cargo ships, has causedworld food prices to skyrocketin some African countriesthis. Is simply unsustainable, which is why much of Ukraine is interested in ending the war as soon as possible, rather than punishing Putin.
This does not imply that sanctions are unjustified. Washington has very limited options. Diplomatic responses such as harsh press statements, expulsions, and UN Security Council resolutions are toothless and primarily virtue signaling exercises. Deeper military involvement beyond the dispatch and provision of weapons will extend war to widespread regional conflicts with nuclear overtones. Economic sanctions are one of the low-risk options available to Western policy makers. Freezing assets and blocking targeted entities from accessing US financial institutions is a relatively quick and easy way to punish bad behavior (this is the last 20 US sanctions designations). That's why it increased by 933%over the year).
However, sanctions do not address the cause of the action and cannot solve the immediate problem. They have not forced North Korea to abolish its nuclear weapons program, resigned Bashar al-Assad from Syria, or pressured Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela to resign his office. And they will definitely not be responsible for ending the war in Ukraine. Only the shape of the battlefield and the risk tolerance of the combatants do that.
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