The Colts and Steelers both entered this season with high hopes behind new quarterbacks and seemingly high-end defenses. Twelve weeks into the season, those plans have been mostly derailed, though each side is hoping that a big game from its key skill-position stars can help turn their season around.
Here are three of our favorite prop bets to target ahead of Monday night:
Jonathan Taylor longest rush over 17.5 yards (-110)
A year after leading the NFL in rushing yards, Taylor has slogged through a frustrating season mired by injuries and a revolving door at quarterback. Yet he’s starting to look like his old self again — and that includes a burst unrivaled by just about any back in the league.
He showed it off last week, scampering for a 28-yard gain on his second carry of the game in a near-win over the Eagles. That’s been a trend as of late: Taylor has registered at least one rush of 25 yards in each of his last three games after finishing without one in his previous five games.
This is the back we’ve come to expect, as Taylor finished with at least one carry of 19-plus yards in 12 of 17 games last year, including each of his last four games of the season. With the way this rushing offense has looked since interim coach Jeff Saturday took over, I’d expect at least one sizable gain from Taylor in this one.
Najee Harris under 62.5 rushing yards (-115)
Much like Taylor, Harris has looked like a different back over the last two weeks, rushing for 90-plus yards for the first two times all season. Yet I’m skeptical of him keeping that going in a tough matchup against this Colts defense.
For one, those outputs came with a significant increase in volume. Harris saw a season-high 20 carries in both games — one in a surprising win over the Saints and again last week against the Bengals, when he saw all but six snaps. That’s out of the norm for Harris, who hasn’t seen more than 80 percent of his team’s snaps all year.
That was precipitated by an injury to Jaylen Warren, who is also ruled out for Monday’s contest, but I’d expect the Steelers to integrate other options more than they did on short notice last week. That would put Harris in a tough spot to surpass a total he’s reached just four times all year, especially against an Indy defense allowing the NFL’s second-fewest yards per carry (3.8).
Risk Free First Bet up to $1,000 with NPBONUS
New customers only. Must be 21+. AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY only. (Welcome Offer not available in NY & PA) Full T&C apply.
First bet up To $1,250 On Caesars
New users only, 21 or older. NY, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, MI, NV, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. Full T&Cs apply.
No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000
21+. New customers only. AZ, CT, IA, IL, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, WV, WY only. T&C apply
Parris Campbell over 43.5 receiving yards (-115)
This prop is being suppressed by Campbell’s season average of 40 receiving yards per game, but that doesn’t tell the whole story for fourth-year speedster, who has quickly become a favorite target for starting quarterback Matt Ryan.
Campbell was on the verge of a breakout earlier this year, when he saw a combined 23 targets in Ryan’s final two games before losing his starting job. Campbell’s numbers dipped under sophomore passer Sam Ehlinger before immediately jumping again in Ryan’s return over the last two weeks.
All told, Campbell has finished with at least five catches and 57 yards receiving in each of Ryan’s last four starts, leading the team in receiving yards in two of those four contests and finishing 8 yards shy last week. The former second-round pick is finally rounding into form with Ryan at the helm, and oddsmakers are slow to catch on.
