The International Energy Agency (IEA) says Russia could completely reduce its gas supply to Europe in order to increase its leverage to the West after Moscow invades Ukraine. I warned you.
Russia has recently severely restricted the flow of gas to Europe. The Kremlin accuses the delay in equipment maintenance caused by European Union sanctions, and Europe accuses the Kremlin of playing geopolitics.
"Given this recent action, Russia will continue to find problems here and there, further reducing its gas supply to Europe, and perhaps finding excuses to shut it down altogether. I do not intend to exclude it, "IEA Secretary-General Fatih Birol said in a statement to Reuters News Agency. "This is why Europe needs an emergency response plan."
Energy Crisis
When Russia's gas is completely cut off, Europe becomes energy It will be in jeopardy, said Tom Marzec-Manser, Head of Gas Analysis at Independent Commodity Intelligence Services.
"Currently the gas supply from Russia-the pipeline supply-is literally a quarter of what it was a year ago, so the quantity is very small and obviously that is causing concern. Rebuilding storage, storage stock, ahead of the coming winter means much more difficult, "he told VOA.
Storage
Currently, gas storage facilities in Europe account for 55% of capacity. The EU announced last month that it aims to reach 80% of its capacity by November.
"Especially all LNG [liquefied natural gas] from the United States came to Europe, which helped rebuild the storage at a faster rate than usual," Marzec-Manser said.
The reduction in pipeline flow from Russia raises questions about whether the EU's storage targets can be met. The NordStream1 pipeline, which carries gas from Russia to Germany, will be closed for maintenance next month.
The soaring gas prices since the invasion of Ukraine have benefited Russia's state-owned Gazprom, Marzec-Manser added, referring to Russian gas companies.
"A huge amount of money was made in a short period of time. This will allow Gazprom to pass at least for the next few years in that it can actually limit the flow, but still bank money." Said.
German emergency
Germany gets about one-third of its gas from Russia. The government declared Thursday that it had entered the "warning phase" of the emergency gas program and called on Germans to reduce consumption.
"Germany has a disrupted gas supply. That is the definition, so we need to declare this emergency gas program," Deputy Prime Minister Robert Habeck told reporters Thursday. "Germany is running out of gas," he said.
"This situation was expected to happen sooner or later, but now it's important to do everything we can to save gas," she told Reuters.
Analysts say the industrial and electricity sectors are also called upon to reduce consumption, and the energy crisis could put Europe in recession.
"To save gas, the power sector, the industrial demand sector, needs to play a really important role. Many governments across Europe have proposed to allow continued use of coal. "Marzec-Manser told VOA.
Continued use of coal will overturn Europe's commitment to phase out coal and other fossil fuels. There is a growing demand for faster development and deployment of renewable energy.
"This means more space for wind energy, which means a faster program of solar energy on as many roofs as possible. It's not fast enough. I would like to see a booster program for renewable energy. It is appropriate depending on the situation because it is in a crisis situation or an emergency situation. "
European leaders have struggled to find an alternative to Russian gas. Although US LNG imports are skyrocketing, the EU signed an agreement this month to increase LNG supply from Israel and Egypt.
But analysts warn that Europe will struggle to exchange Russia's gas in the coming months and a cold winter will exacerbate the crisis.
