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Super Bowl 2023 prediction, prop pick: How to bet first quarter total

When it comes to betting on the Super Bowl, it pays to shop around for the best number. That’s especially true for the first-quarter total ahead of Super Bowl 57.

The 1Q total for this year’s matchup between the Eagles and Chiefs is dealing at 9.5 at most books, including BetMGM and Caesars, with the over juiced anywhere from -125 to -135. At FanDuel, the total is set at 10 with the under priced at -126. 

That opens up a world of opportunities for savvy bettors ahead of Sunday’s game – including one clever way to bet on the exact score that isn’t offered by oddsmakers.

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Super Bowl 57 1st quarter total: Over or under?

Historically, the first 15 minutes of Super Bowl have been certifiably snooze-worthy. The first seven contests in Super Bowl history featured just 26 combined points in the first quarter, and nine of the 10 title games from 2000-09 saw a first-quarter score of seven points or less.

That hasn’t been the case in recent years. Since 2010, the first quarter has seen double-digit points scored in eight of 13 years (61.5%), which implies a fair price of -160 on the over. With five of the last seven title games producing a combined first-quarter score of 10 or higher, it’s easy to see the appeal in betting over 9.5 at roughly -130 odds.

When you move the total up to 10, though? It changes everything.

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Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Over that same 13-year period, betting under 10 would net a 5-2-6 record – good for a 71.4% hit rate with six pushes. That would extend to a ridiculous 14-3-6 record (82.4%) over the last 23 years and a 30-15-11 record (66.7%) across the 56-year history of the Super Bowl. Put another way: we’ve seen just three first quarters with a score over 10 in nearly a quarter-century.

Clearly, the key to maximizing the 1Q total is including 10 in the bet, which has been the exact combined score of the first quarter in nearly one-fifth of all Super Bowls. And while a push isn’t exactly an exciting way to resolve a bet, it’s a profitable one when the likelihood of a first quarter with more than 10 points is so low.

Unique ways to bet 1Q total in Super Bowl 57

As we mentioned above, 10 is a remarkably common score for the first quarter of the Super Bowl. In fact, it’s the single-most common outcome in Super Bowl history, occuring 11 times overall and six times in the last 13 years – including each of the last three contests.

So how do you bet on it happening a fourth straight time? While most sportsbooks let you bet on the exact score for each team for the first quarter, they don’t let you bet on the exact combined score. That’s where it pays to shop around.

If you place separate bets on over 9.5 and under 10, each at -125 odds, you can essentially engineer a bet on a 1Q score of exactly 10 at 4/1 odds. That’s a pretty compelling price for a score that’s happened in three straight contests and 46.2% of all Super Bowls since 2010.

Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps

Another bet worth making? The first quarter total points to be even. What sounds like a coin-flip bet on the surface – odd/even are both -110 at FanDuel – has actually been remarkably profitable for “even,” which has cashed in 10 straight Super Bowls and 34 times in the game’s 56-year history (60.7%).

That shouldn’t come as any real surprise with how often 10 and zero are the final scores in the first quarter. To that point, “any scoreless quarter” is a steal at +410 (FanDuel), having cashed six times since 2004 and three times in the last eight Super Bowls.

Fittingly, all three of those scoreless quarters came in the first 15 minutes, which has happened nine times in Super Bowl history. And while we likely won’t see a scoreless frame to open Super Bowl 57, there’s a high likelihood we’ll see fewer than 10 points in Sunday’s first quarter – if not 10 points exactly.