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For decades, conservatives have been patiently waiting for the Supreme Court to overturn theRoe v. Wade case, but have been busy weakening it. .. In Congress and the State Capitol, they pushed for policies that made it more difficult to ensure legal abortion. This is an effort that has helped widen the gap between the two major parties. Yet at the same time, most Americans settled inself-satisfiedstates, and assumed thatRoewas thesettledlaw. } The Republican President appointed to the Federal Bench.
Now, on Friday, the conservatives finally gottheirwishesthe proverbial dog caught the car — and at leastpolitics. May come toregret it. Americans are stilldigestedDobbs v. Jacksonand their potential widespreadthat can range from reproductive rights to personal relationships and marriage equality. Digesting the result. However, you cannot get around this topic on the Campaign Trail.
It's still early, and the election day is relatively far away, 19 weeks away. However, a swift poll conducted days after the Supreme Court withdrew the 1973 case shows political problems for the Republicans. Historically, the party holding the White House has a gloomy show in the first test with voters. Only the September 11 attack escaped the incumbent president who insulted in 2002. President Joe Biden's employment approvalnumberis one of the worst since World War II,inflationis a voter, and high gaspriceIs hitting everyone. In other words, Republicans will really have to try to ruin their hands.
Still, with regard to the right to abortion, Democrats seem to have an advantage over the topics that dominate the news, forcing almost all states toreconsider their abortion policies. Therefore, it may remain in your mind. According to Gallup, a record number of votershave stated thatabortion will be a matter ofdeciding to vote this year, and a recent pollsaid. It suggests a surge in interest in. A midterm election that seems to support the Democratic Party. However, the threat of indifference and fatigue is a reality, and sustaining anger is a daunting task.
Especially one group can have a big shake. A college-educated womandetermines the outcome in a swaying suburb. Many regretsupport for Trump in 2016, andsupportDemocrats following} Returned to. Two elections. Currently, they are not very happy with theDobbsdecision. A significant 71% of college-educated white women support the right to abortion, and a recent NPR poll found that it was a winning block for the Democratic long-term outlook.
Even before the Supreme Court ruled,the number of Americans who told Gallup pollsters that they had identified it as "professional life" was the lowest since 1996. Fifty-five percent of those surveyed close to the record identified it as "choice of choice," and first, the majority (52%) stated that abortion was morally acceptable. In decades of polls, Gallup found thatincreased support for abortion, and support for abortion grew across all demographic groups last year. ..
It seems that the number of voters inhas doubled since Friday's decision. A weekend NPR-Marist survey found that 56% of all adults opposed the decision and 53% of independents said the same. As a reason for Republican vigilance, 66% of suburban women said they opposed it, along with 70% of white women who graduated from college.
According to the same NPR-Marist survey, of all registered voters, 48% of Americans said they would vote for the Democratic Party running for Congress, and 41% said they would vote for the Republican Party. It is slightly higher. .. These numbers are tracked in the same findings a month before the 2018 elections when the Democrats came to power. (When it comes to which party controls the House of Representatives,Gerrymanderchangedto, so it's difficult to find a competitive district in many states, so these Many of the voters' opinions are not important.)
In short, if Democrats can stay focused on this topic, they may go against history and Biden may drag the election disaster. They have been laying the groundwork for this moment formonths, further strengthening focus groups and voting after the draft decisionleakedin early May. Emily's List, Planned Parent-Child Relationships, and NARAL — The Three Big Groups of Abortion Rights —plans a $ 150 million blitzkrieg on topics for the fall.
But Republicans are by no means discouraged. According to NPR polls, their base loved this ruling. It favors 75% of white evangelicals, 84% of those who voted for Donald Trump in 2020, and 54% of white working-class men. Republican strategists have long argued that abortion fires a small but devoted part of the electorate: volunteers who knock on doors and make phone calls. The new strategy seems to be to cast Democrats who support the right to abortion as radicals. In New Mexico, where the Democratic Party controls the legislature, Republican Governor candidates support his life, butbans "late and partial abortions supported by the current Governor." Onlypledged. (New Mexicomeans the destination of the abortion service,, as many other states in the region have completely banned the abortion service.)
Next is the economy. Everyone is in a pinch. Systematically, Democrats are simply bleeding their voter roster. According to an analysis of the Associated Press, more than one million voters turned to the Republican Party in 43 states last year. This change is especially noticeable in the suburbs. If that trend continues, it may mean that tens of thousands of sour suburban voters to Trump may have potentially relocated back to the Republican Party enough to determine parliamentary rule.
The question is whether the new abortion situation could encourage the same voters to return to the democratic fold. To do this, it is worth listening to suburban women, especially white women with a college degree.
There is little room for Republican candidates to hide, especially if the Democratic Party succeeds in portraying the GOP as a radical party. Democrats also need to deal with what comes next in the world of Roeafter. Until recently, millions of Swing voters had little hope ofthatRoecould really be overthrown after years of hard-earned endurance. did not. Surprise came and re-created the political situation. It is now the responsibility of both parties to understand how to read the new terrain.
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philip'sPhilip Elliott Please write. elliott@time.com
