There’s no shortage of firepower on display Monday when the 49ers host the division-rival Rams in a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game.
With Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm, San Francisco’s offense hasn’t exactly been firing on all cylinders. Neither has Los Angeles’, which is trying to rediscover the magic that led it to Super Bowl LVI in February. Here are three of our favorite prop bets to hit ahead of Monday’s contest:
Matthew Stafford Under 250.5 yards (-115, BetRivers)
This prop feels low at a glance for one of the most aggressive passers in the league, but we simply haven’t seen that version of Stafford to this point in the year. He’s thrown for 250 yards or less in two of three starts thus far, including last week’s 249-yard effort against a Cardinals defense that had allowed over 600 yards in its previous two games.
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This matchup won’t get any easier against the 49ers, who own the NFL’s stingiest pass defense (148.3 yards per game) behind an elite pass rush and a quietly efficient secondary, which has long been a weak spot for this vaunted defense. Stafford struggled in two games against San Francisco a year ago, throwing for less than 250 yards in both regular-season contests — something he did just four times all of last season.
In any other matchup, Stafford would seem like a decent bet to go over this mark. But with his slow start to this point and a matchup against the NFL’s best pass defense — one that’s historically given him trouble — this is a clear Under play.
Jimmy Garoppolo Under 223.5 passing yards (-123, Caesars)
If you’re holding out hope for the old Garoppolo to reemerge in this newfound starting role, I wouldn’t bet on it. We’ve seen years of substandard play from the 49ers quarterback, and this looks to be one of his least inspiring seasons yet.
The longtime starter was thrust back into his old job in Week 2, and while he showed signs of his old self in that game, he still finished that contest with just 154 passing yards despite playing almost 80 percent of the snaps. He wasn’t much better last week, when he played the entire game and posted just 211 yards through the air.
Now he faces a Rams defense that is intimately familiar with its division rival and held him below 235 yards in two of three meetings last season. Since then, Garoppolo has fought back from offseason shoulder surgery and missed a summer’s worth of reps before being thrown back into a starting role. He isn’t the same guy — whatever that would even be worth — and he shouldn’t be bet like one.
Deebo Samuel Over 29.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel)
For the first two weeks of the season, it looked like Samuel’s usage as a running back was here to stay as a legitimate staple of the 49ers’ offense. Then he ran for just six yards last week to kill any momentum of his rushing exploits.
Still, the do-it-all receiver rushed for 50-plus yards in each of those two contests, which was an extension of his success on the ground last season. Let’s not forget that it was against the Rams when San Francisco unleashed Samuel as a rusher, and he turned just five carries into 36 yards and a score.
Since then, he has rushed for at least 30 yards in 10 of 14 games — which doesn’t include totals of 26 and 29 yards — and he has hit that mark in all three meetings with Los Angeles. I would expect a similar output from the 49ers’ best offensive weapon on Monday.
