Part of the difficulty arises because studies have suggested competing effects, said Christopher Weiss, a professor of atmospheric science at Texas Tech University.
As the world warms, atmospheric instability will increase, creating conditions more favorable for storms to develop. Yet, at the same time, strong wind shear, where winds increase and rapidly change direction at different atmospheric heights, is forecast to decrease as a result of climate change. Weaker wind shear could reduce the amount of warm, rising air in storms and therefore suppress the formation of tornadoes. Scientists are still trying to understand what these seemingly conflicting outcomes could mean for tornadoes, but Weiss said studies have suggested that a warmer climate will produce more storms.
“Even if wind shear remains fairly steady, we’re increasing instability on top of that, so we can expect to see more in the way of tornado occurrence,” he said.
Next month, Weiss and his colleagues will embark on a three-month research project in the Southeast focused on studying storms in the region and how to enhance predictions of when they form. The research, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's VORTEX program, will also examine societal aspects, including available shelters and how to communicate threats to communities at risk, Weiss said.
“It’s a really holistic approach to the tornado threat in that section of the country, so hopefully we can make some impact,” he said.
The project may be well-timed, with the year already off to an active start.
La Niña conditions will most likely continue to fuel atmospheric instability, which could mean more tornadoes ahead, Gensini said.
“It’s pretty rare to see an active January and February that all of a sudden goes dull in April and May,” he said. “When you look at tornado statistics, if it starts early in January and February, it’ll typically just keep going.”
Denise Chow is a reporter for NBC News Science focused on general science and climate change.
