Ukraine update: The Kherson bulge, the Kramatorsk gap

There was no doubt at all about Russia’s strategy when they rolled across the border on Feb 24—take it all. Putin meant to capture Kyiv, install a puppet government, declare victory, and then watch as the invincible Russian military drove tanks over dispirited Ukrainian holdouts while wearing their dress uniforms and singing the Soviet national anthem. According to Moscow, everything is going according to plan.

In the real world, Russia is now moving all its forces to the east and south of Ukraine and where a few days ago there were conflicts all over the nation, now there are just two zones that are the absolute focus of both militaries, and which could decide the course of the war.

One of these areas is what might be described as “the Kherson bulge.” With the help of local officials who took a bribe, Russian forces managed to capture two intact bridges across the southern Dnieper River, one on the northern edge of Kherson, another about 40 miles upstream at Nova Kakhovka.

These bridges allowed Russia to take control of the city of Kherson in the first week of the war. With a population just under 300,000, Kherson represents the only large urban center that Russia has been able to capture and hold since the invasion began. Once they had a grip on Kherson, Russian forces were able to achieve one of their key objectives — opening the flow of water to Crimea, without which conditions there were becoming extremely difficult for Russia to maintain.

Russian forces would like to achieve their second main objective in the area — capturing Odesa and cutting off Ukraine from the Black Sea. However, attempts to reach the city of Mykolaiv were strongly repulsed (in part by some of the same troops that had originally been in Kherson). Ukraine has been gradually pushing back down the same highway along which Russia advance, recapturing towns and coming within about 20 miles of Kherson proper. In the last two days, Ukrainian forces have also been recapturing a series of towns and villages in the area of that blue arrow at the top of the map. It seemed 

There were widespread rumors that Russia was going to retreat across the bridges and hold positions on the east side of the Dnieper, but in the last day Russian troops advanced again to capture the town of Snihurivka (that red dot directly east of Mykolaiv). That seems to indicate they have not given up their ambitions in this area.

A total victory for Ukraine would involve capturing one or more bridges and bagging a large number of Russian troops left trapped on the west side of the river. A more likely scenario is that Russia moves east and takes the bridges with them. But the move to take Snihurivka could signal a new advance on Mykolaiv. 

In any case, what happens next here could decide whether Russia gets anywhere close to Odesa, because attempts to capture the city by amphibious landing look like a no-go.

The other area is that “gap” in Russia’s control of the Donbas region south of the town of Isyum. This area is the key to whether or nor Russia can complete it’s number one goal at this point: Capturing all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. 

The east side of the yellow area on this map represents well-established defensive positions where Ukrainian forces are dug-in to prevent a direct westward advance by Russia or their supporters. In order to bypass this position and potentially capture a large number of Ukrainian troops along with their equipment, Russia is pushing south from Izyum and north from the Donetsk.

The simple fact that we’re talking about Izyum as a town under Russian control shows that Russian forces have managed to advance in this area over the last week. Once again working with local officials who — from either threat or bribery — went over to Putin, Russian forces managed to locate an area where they could successfully ford / bridge the small river running through Izyum, circled around the small local garrison from the southeast, and captured the hold-out town. Now those forces are continuing on to the south.

Russia could continue down the M03 highway toward Slovyansk. If Russia took Slovyansk, they would have the option of continuing south or of cutting east another another highway to cut off a portion of the Ukrainian troops along the Donbas defensive line. However, there are indications that’s not what Russia intends to do. They may swing west around the town of Kramatorsk, putting them closer to the oblast border and allowing their troops to give the recently discovered oil field in the area a warm hug.

Or …

This would be the equivalent of a Hail Mary pass on the part of Russia. Izyium is already at the end of a long and complex salient that is venerable to a possible Ukrainian attack from Kharkiv. But an attempt to go all the way out to Pavlohrad (near the left edge of the map of the Kramatorsk area), would put them way-the-hell out on a limb. 

If Russia pulled it off, it would be amazing, and could potentially cut off a sizable portion of the whole Ukrainian army. On the other hand … this looks impossible. They would have a salient that, by that point, would be hundreds of miles long, under assault from every direction, and subject to attack at dozens of locations.

Still, Russia has shelled multiple locations west of Kramatorsk on Thursday, including points along the highway leading to Pavlohrad. That could indicate that they are trying to soften up the route in advance of moving that way.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is well aware of Russia’s intentions in the Kramatorsk gap, and has also repositioned forces. On Wednesday several Russian tanks and a helicopter were destroyed by Ukrainian troops moving in southwest of Izyum, and some of those same vehicles that were involved in building the bridge that allowed Russia to cross the river now look like this.

(Bonus points: Can you name all the items Russian troops were trying to steal when these vehicles were destroyed.)

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