After a turbulent group stage, the Round of 16 was low on surprises at the 2022 World Cup.
While there was one big shock in the first knockout round – Morocco upsetting Spain – the seven other favorites won, setting up a quarterfinal round that features six of the top nine favorites from the pre-tournament odds.
Brazil, fresh off a 4-1 thrashing of South Korea, are still the consensus favorites to lift the trophy at +175 and are the biggest favorite to advance in the quarterfinals. The Selecao are -700 to get by Croatia, who are +3800 to win the tournament after getting past Japan on penalties last round.
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France is the second-favorite on the big board, though it’s a tricky proposition to back Les Bleus, given their quarterfinal matchup with England is projected to be the tightest by the oddsmakers. The Three Lions are +104 to advance and +600 to win the trophy, making them the fifth-favorite behind Brazil, France, Argentina, and Portugal.
After entering the tournament as a lukewarm favorite, the Portuguese have seen their odds shorten to the point where they are now tied with Argentina as the third-favorite at +550. Part of that is because Portugal looked quite impressive in a 6-1 thrashing of Switzerland, but also because they will play Morocco, who are +3800 after stunning Spain in the quarterfinals.
Here’s where we stand ahead of the quarterfinals, which begin on December 9 at 10 a.m. ET on FOX.
Updated World Cup odds
| Brazil | +175 |
| France | +450 |
| Argentina | +550 |
| Portugal | +550 |
| England | +600 |
| Netherlands | +1500 |
| Morocco | +3800 |
| Croatia | +3800 |
Pick to win the 2022 World Cup
Netherlands (+1500, FanDuel)
The path is certainly not great for Clockwork Oranje. The Netherlands are +126 underdogs to advance against Argentina. They will be a bigger price if they face Brazil in the semis. Still, the fact that the Dutch are being offered in the same range that they were before the tournament started is a bit of a head-scratcher, especially since Argentina have failed to impress thus far in this competition.
After an uneven showing in the group stage, the Dutch were terrific against the United States, executing a game plan that allowed Clockwork Oranje to capitalize on the weaknesses in the USMNT game plan.
A similar style of play could work wonders against Argentina, who are dangerous going forward but offer little resistance against the quick, dynamic counters that the Netherlands pulled off against the Yanks.
Should the Dutch defeat Argentina, a showdown with Brazil will be a tough mountain to climb, but the Netherlands have the make-up of a side that should be able to give Brazil issues.
The Netherlands have a strong pairing in the middle of their defense, they’re quick down the flanks, and they have the finishing talent to make the most of the opportunities they create.
The Dutch are worth a shot at this number.
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Pick to win Golden Boot
Bukayo Saka (+3700, FanDuel)
The Golden Boot is Kylian Mbappe’s to lose right now. The French talisman has five goals in his account, which is two more than any other player on the field and has two assists (most assists is the tie-breaker if two players tie).
But the race isn’t over yet. Should Mbappe’s France get knocked out by England in the next round – a very real possibility – the hunt for the Golden Boot will be wide open.
There are seven players still in the tournament with three goals to their name in this tournament and Saka has the longest odds of that bunch.
With Harry Kane playing the facilitator role for the England attack, Saka has been able to make great use of the space created by Kane’s gravitational pull and notch a trio of goals thus far.
Should England make it through to the final round, Saka has a decent chance of continuing to fill the net.
