The first quarter of the NFL season is almost over (it only took me an hour to remember the schedule is 17 games now), and the playoff picture is starting to take shape. Most of the teams pegged as contenders still look the part, but multiple surprises have also emerged in the league long defined by its parity.
Here’s a breakdown of all 32 teams, heading into Week 5:
The teams to beat
Bills (3-1): No team has looked stronger than the preseason favorite — led by MVP front-runner Josh Allen — who would be favored over any team on a neutral field. But….
Chiefs (3-1): …A potential third straight postseason trip to Kansas City could again spell trouble for the Bills. Patrick Mahomes has been masterful without Tyreek Hill, and the Chiefs look like a strong bet to reach a fifth straight AFC Championship game.
The potential power
Eagles (4-0): Philadelphia deserves its own tier as the last remaining undefeated team in the league and the least established of the top contenders. Though they have a top-five offense and defense, the Eagles are four years removed from their most recent playoff win. And I wouldn’t buy stock in Jalen Hurts as a Super Bowl quarterback yet.
Flawed contenders
Packers (3-1): Aaron Rodgers and his subpar receiving corps are putting up fewer than 19 points per game. The quarterback turns 39 in December and hasn’t been to the Super Bowl in 12 years.
Buccaneers (2-2): Tampa Bay suffered back-to-back home losses to the Packers and Chiefs, but a championship-level defense and the greatest quarterback of all time may still be the toughest out in the NFC.
Rams (2-2): The Super Bowl hangover has touched most of the team, but the defending champs still have all the pieces to emerge from a wide-open conference.
Ravens (2-2): Baltimore has blown a pair of big leads at home, but a talented and balanced core is healthy enough to challenge the AFC’s best. John Harbaugh’s group is just three years removed from a 14-2 season, and Lamar Jackson is only 25.
49ers (2-2): An elite defense and reliable run game will bring the 49ers back to the postseason. Once there, their fallback plan of Jimmy Garoppolo — motivated by imminent free agency and San Francisco’s preseason demotion — gives the team its best chance at another deep playoff run.
Bengals (2-2): The upgraded offensive line is starting to look the part after some early-season struggles. This week’s trip to Baltimore will anoint the AFC North favorite.
Intriguing upside
Dolphins (3-1): One of the best stories of the season’s first month is now a public relations nightmare for the NFL. It is unclear when Tua Tagovailoa will return from suspected back-to-back concussions. It is also unclear how this saga will affect a group looking for its first postseason berth in six years.
Chargers (2-2): L.A.’s second-favorite team was a Super Bowl sleeper to start the season. Injuries to Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ defense could postpone those plans another year.
Vikings (3-1): A season-opening beatdown of the Packers proved the NFC North is up for grabs. If only Justin Jefferson wasn’t catching balls thrown by Kirk Cousins.
Cowboys (3-1): Once upon a time, fourth-round pick Dak Prescott won the starting job when Tony Romo got hurt. With Prescott’s return from a thumb injury nearing, will the Cowboys bench Cooper Rush, who is the first NFL quarterback to go 4-0 while recording a passer rating of 90 or higher in each of his first four starts?
Wild card at best
Cardinals (2-2): Arizona has lost its two games against contenders (Chiefs, Rams) and won its two games against losing teams (Raiders, Panthers). That sums it up.
Titans (2-2): Last year’s top seed in the AFC is back in the picture after an 0-2 start. It is no coincidence that Derrick Henry’s two best performances this season came in the wins.
Broncos (2-2): Turns out, Denver was more than a quarterback away. Russell Wilson should be thankful that first-time head coach Nathaniel Hackett has distracted most people from Wilson’s uninspired play.
Browns (2-2): A soft early portion of the schedule has kept Cleveland afloat, but Nick Chubb can’t put this inconsistent defense — without three-time Pro Bowler Myles Garrett for 2-4 weeks after he injured his shoulder in a car accident — on his back all season.
Raiders (1-3): Las Vegas’ three losses have come by a total of 13 points. Hope isn’t lost. It’s just dwindling.
Falling fast
Colts (1-2-1): Turns out, Wilson wasn’t the only former star quarterback well past his prime. The formula used by the Rams to win a Super Bowl hasn’t worked out for Indy’s offense, either, with Matt Ryan throwing for as many touchdowns as interceptions (five).
Saints (1-3): Injuries — and an unlucky pair of bounces off the uprights — have created an inauspicious opening to the post-Sean Payton era.
Patriots (1-3): Bill Belichick underestimated how difficult life would be without Tom Brady. He didn’t know he’d soon be relying on Bailey Zappe.
Pleasant surprises
Jaguars (2-2): Free from Urban Meyer’s despotic rule, Super Bowl-winning coach Doug Pederson has sparked a rebound for the perennial punching bags and made them surprise AFC South contenders.
Giants (3-1): There is much to improve and much to critique, but you can’t argue with results. Most importantly, the Giants have found a head coach who looks likely to last more than two years, thanks in part to the fact that Saquon Barkley looks like the running back touched by the hand of God.
Jets (2-2): Robert Saleh’s impact on the defense is evident. Now we’ll find out what Zach Wilson can do for the offense after Sunday’s win in Pittsburgh.
Seahawks (2-2): Geno Smith leads the league with a 77.3 completion percentage and ranks third in QBR. Let’s let that sink in.
Falcons (2-2): The Eagles’ perfect record pales in comparison to Atlanta’s 4-0 mark against the spread.
Better luck next year
Lions (1-3): Incredibly, the Lions have the top-ranked offense in the league. Predictably, the Lions have the last-ranked defense in the league.
Steelers (1-3): The Mitch Trubisky rehab project went as expected, but it’s a lot to ask of rookie Kenny Pickett to save the franchise from its first losing season since 2003.
Panthers (1-3): Perhaps Sam Darnold will get his second chance, taking over for Baker Mayfield. Perhaps third-year coach Matt Rhule (11-26 overall) even will be around to see it.
Bears (2-2): Micah Parsons was selected one pick after Justin Fields. Instead of having added another linebacker to their lineage, the Bears may be forced to draft another franchise quarterback in a couple years.
Commanders (1-3): The team doesn’t offend an entire race of people anymore, so it’s got that going for them, which is nice.
Texans (0-3-1): C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young or Will Levis? Which quarterback will Houston take with the No. 1 pick?
Today’s back page
An unfinished playoff picture
The NL East crown remains up for grabs with two days remaining in the regular season.
While the opening game of the Mets’ (98-61) final series was postponed by rain — an old-school, single-admission doubleheader against the Nationals will be played today at Citi Field — the Braves (100-60) followed their three-game sweep of the Mets by falling 4-0 to the lowly Marlins.
The Mets — who need to sweep the Nationals and have the Marlins sweep the Braves to win the division and earn a playoff bye — hold hope for at least one more day.
The Phillies did ensure that three NL East teams will be in the postseason by clinching a berth in last night’s 3-0 win in Houston. Philadelphia will end the National League’s longest playoff drought, appearing for the first time since 2011. The Mariners will end MLB’s longest drought by playing in the postseason for the first time since 2001, leaving the Angels and Tigers tied for the longest stretch of futility, both most recently reaching the playoffs in 2014.
The waiting is the hardest part
Marwin Gonzalez opened the eighth inning with a home run. Giancarlo Stanton added another two batters later. In between, Aaron Judge struck out. That’s as close as Judge came to a long ball in last night’s 3-1 win over the Rangers (which featured a seven-inning, no-hit outing from Luis Severino), going 1-for-4.
With only three games remaining in the regular season — including today’s doubleheader — Judge is quickly running out of chances to claim sole ownership of the American League single-season home run record. A 62nd home run seemed certain when Judge reached 60 on Sept. 20, but the MVP favorite has only hit one in the past 12 games.
The pressure will only increase in his final at-bats.
Sometimes, the past is best left there
A little less than two years ago, White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf made the bizarre decision to hire Tony La Russa as the oldest manager in MLB history, at 76, nine years removed from his most recent game in a dugout.
Last night, the two-year comeback ended with La Russa’s retirement announcement in Chicago. La Russa’s return to the franchise produced one division title, zero playoff series victories and the stench of underachievement in this season’s failed campaign.
La Russa isn’t the first athlete or coach to return to the game when there was nothing left to prove and little to gain but money. And he won’t be the last. The best in the business succeeded for so long that they believe they’ll return like George Foreman. Usually, they end up on their back like Michael Moorer.
Here’s a look at some other notable failed comebacks in sports history:
Michael Jordan: His first comeback produced the Bulls’ second three-peat. His second retirement ended with a forgettable two-season stint with the Wizards, who failed to make the playoffs either year.
Bjorn Borg: The now-historically underrated 11-time grand slam champion gave up tennis at age 26. The less that’s said about his disastrous comeback in 1991 — more than eight years later — the better.
Joe Louis: Financial problems brought the greatest heavyweight champion of all time back into the ring. Rocky Marciano’s punch that knocked a balding 37-year-old Louis out of the ring — through the ropes — remains one of the saddest sights in sports history.
Lance Armstrong: The seven-time Tour de France champion was an American icon when he retired in 2005 and returned in 2009. When his unremarkable two-year return concluded, the drug-stained cheat was on his way to becoming one of the most hated athletes in the world.
Jon Gruden: A $100 million contract lured the ESPN broadcaster back into coaching for the first time in nine years. Gruden was forced to resign last season — less than four years into the 10-year deal — after he was revealed to have written several emails containing racist and homophobic remarks.
