It was a double-dose of disappointment for the New York Yankees on Monday night. Not only did the Yanks squander an opportunity to wrap up the division, but Aaron Judge went another game without a home run.
There’s very little reason to panic on both fronts of course, as the Yankees still lead the Blue Jays by 7.5 games in the AL East, and Judge has nine more games to hit 61 and beyond.
The Bombers are slight +100 underdogs on BetMGM in Toronto on Tuesday night.
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Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds (via BetMGM)
- Yankees: +100
- Blue Jays: -118
- Over/Under: 8
Yankees vs. Blue Jays prediction
Jameson Taillon will get the assignment for the Yankees and will look to tame a Blue Jays offense that ranks second in wOBA (.330), second in wRC+ (115) and third in OPS (.757) this season.
Taillon’s season-long numbers may not leap off the page, but the 30-year-old right-hander has been steady as she goes for the Yankees this season with a 3.90 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 164 innings. There are no red flags in Taillon’s peripheral metrics as he boasts a 4.15 xERA and a 3.77 xFIP this season.
And even if Taillon has pitched like a middle-of-the-rotation arm this year, he’s still the A-side of this pitching matchup against the struggling Jose Berrios.
It’s been a season to forget for Berrios, who enters Tuesday night with a 5.27 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and .287 batting average against over 160.2 innings of work. And while Berrios’ .326 BABIP and 4.22 xFIP suggest he’s been unlucky as well as ineffective, it’s hard to ignore the rest of his statline and just chalk everything up to a poor fortune.
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In his previous two seasons, Berrios struck out 25.9% of the batters he faced and allowed a 38.6% hard hit rate. In 2022, those numbers have capitulated to 19.5% and 43.2%. Berrios ranks in the 14th percentile in average exit velocity, 13th percentile in hard hit rate and fifth percentile in expected slugging percentage.
Those numbers spell serious trouble against a Yankees offense that is basically on par with the Blue Jays this season and has found its form over the past few weeks.
These offenses are a wash, but the pitching matchup suits the Yankees. The Pinstripes have betting value on Tuesday night.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays pick
Yankees +100 (BetMGM)
