After a rare one-game series in Houston, the Yankees head to Cleveland as they try to recover from a 2-1 defeat to the Astros on Thursday. Gerrit Cole makes a start in New York and the Guardians face Aaron Civale. The
teams aren't used to traveling to the city before embarking on one game for another, so it's definitely a unique experience for the Yankees.
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Still, evaluate the odds perspective and whether you can find value at the current market price.
Yankees vs. Guardians MLB odds
Money line: NYY ( -225) vs. CLE (+180)
Spread: NYY -1.5 (-130) vs. CLE +1.5 (+105)
Total: 8.5 or higher (-105) | less than 8.5 (-115)
Yankees vs. Guardians pitcher
Gerit Call (2.99) vs. Aaronshi Barre (7.20)
I'm is not the biggest fan of the call, so I often fade him out when he starts. And while our ActionLabs database shows that his team is 159-89 with 9.29 units when he starts, as a Yankee he is 34-22 with a loss of -5.42 units.
This season, the Yankees are 11-4 at the start of the call, but thanks to the big loss as a favorite of -315, they are only showing a profit of 1.05 units. Cole acknowledges his achievement by marking 6-2 with 2.99ERA and 1.01WHIP. His advanced indicators are also positive, as evidenced by his 2.83xFIP and 2.91xERA.
In addition, Cole succeeded in this Cleveland lineup. Contains. With 82 at bats, the Guardian batting average is .192 and wOBA is .244. Unfortunately, given Civale's disagreement on the mound this season, Cleveland may need to overtake the Yankees to get a chance to win the game.
Civale has so far achieved 7.20 ERA with nine starts. His biggest problem is the long ball, given the 1.35 HR / 9 ratio. Civale is far from a ground ball pitcher, but the flyball rate of 41.9% is the best in his career. This can be a problem for the Yankees team, who lead the major with 127 home runs.
New York's current lineup has 80 at-bats against Civale. At these meetings, the Yankees batting average is .284 and wOBA is .322.
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One of the things I'm worried about about Civale is his speed. He is by no means a smasher, but he averages 90.6 mph on a fastball. In his rookie year, his fastball averaged 92.1 mph. He dropped to 91.5 mph last year.
As a result, his speed has been steadily slowing every year since he joined the league. This season, hostile batters are in contact with Civale at 88.6% of the pitch in the zone. It tells me that Civale is having a hard time missing bats. This is a disastrous combination for anyone who is a flyball pitcher.
Civale has some notable trends for the match on Friday. When he starts this season, the total is over 8-1. Over is also in the 3-0 run when he faces the Yankees.
On the side, my prediction is that the Yankees are as high as -241's favorites. But if you are looking to play this game, I would consider helping them in the runline. New York is a perfect 3-0 when Cole is the starter and loses one game in a row.
But given the Yankees' unique trip after the one-game series in Cleveland, this spot isn't a waste for me.
Yankees vs. Indian Picks
Lean Yankees-1.5RL (-130,BetMGM)