For the first time since the start of Seasons 7-6, the New York Yankees are battling it out. After being swept by the Cardinals, the Yankees are on a five-game losing streak and he's 12-18 in his last 30 games.
Alarm bells are beginning to sound around the Bronx, but experienced bettors know that this downturn for the Yankees could present an opportunity.
For most of the year Bombers couldn't bet because of the price you had to pay. But that changed thanks to this month's swoon. New York is the -118 favorite against the Mariners, who just stole two of his three from the Yankees last week.
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Yankees vs. Mariners odds
Odds Offered Caesars Sportsbook
Spreads NYY (-105) vs. SEA (-115):
Moneyline: NYY -1.5 (+143) vs. SEA +1.5 (170)
Total: Over 8 (-105) | Age 8 Less than (-115)
Yankees vs. Mariners Prediction
Jameson Tyrone is the starting pitcher for the Yankees and has struggled against the same Mariners in his last start. In the game against Seattle six days ago, Taeyeon allowed two hits (both homers) and six runs (five earned runs), and allowed a season-high four walks in 4.2 innings.
The start was another ramification of what had been an inconsistent summer for Taillon after a strong start to the season. The former No. 2 overall pick has a 5.73 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP and a .280 batting average over his last 11 games.
That's the silver lining for Taillon. He also doesn't get much of a fortune benefit. Over the last 11 appearances, Taillon's xFIP, which has removed some of the noise in pitchers' ERA, is 3.91, which isn't great, but shows he pitched better than the surface-level numbers would suggest.
Within a week, Taillon will face Logan Gilbert for the second time. And like Tyrone, Gilbert's final start was rough. The 25-year-old right-hander allowed seven hits and six runs on Aug. 2 against the Yankees, three of which were RBIs and four walks.
For many of these types of starts, Gilbert's peripheral count and batting data show him closer to average than good. For the season, Gilbert owns his 3.09 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, but his xFIP remains at his 3.80 and his BABIP is only .283.
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Market sentiment for the Yankees is deteriorating, and for good reason. According to MLB's expected win-loss metrics, the Yankees should be on the ledger about five more wins than they actually are. This shows that the Yankees are still an elite team and have not achieved the same bounce they had earlier in the season.
Sounds like a recipe for buying cheap.
Yankees vs. Mariners Pick
Bets: New York Yankees -105 (Caesars)