Navin Ramgoolam’s Biggest Challenge

Editorial

Even if there is no better instrument than elections to express the people’s will in a democracy, opinion polls at times constitute an efficient way to measure views on a burning issue affecting society or on forthcoming elections at a point in time. Not always so however, for polls can turn out to be disappointingly off the mark, particularly so on small sample sizes or if people are wary of venting their real feelings or prefer to answer what they feel the interviewer wants to hear. In fact, opinion polls are no substitute for a vote, which goes beyond intentions.

There is also sufficient evidence on the ground to prove that voting decisions are not formed cumulatively across the passage of time to a general election. They are often crystallised towards the very end of an electoral campaign, sometimes in the final week before elections are held. That happened nearly on the eve of the 2000 elections when the decision to form an MSM-MMM alliance (called the MedPoint alliance) overturned the situation overnight against the Labour Party, which could not quite make out why it had been defeated so heavily contrary to its expectations.

Five years later, on the eve of elections once again, the MSM-MMM had the bitter taste of the same kind of overturning position when Rashid Beebeejaun was presented by the Labour Party as Deputy Prime Minister, the effect of which was to shake up the very foundation of what had heretofore been considered as an MMM stronghold. The outcome of elections is also decided on who the protagonists on the two opposing sides of the major political configurations happen to be. That is why political parties have engineered the coming together of unexpected forces at the very last minute to win at elections and this is a truth far removed from what opinion polls can paint at some point of time or other, in the present case two years before the actual polls are taken. Read More… Become a Subscriber

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 13 May 2022