SITUATION REPORT – HORN OF AFRICA No. 459, 03 June 2023

Situation in Sudan (per 3 July)

• Fighting in Sudan intensified on Sunday, with heavy artillery being heard in Omdurman from early morning and air strikes in north of Khartoum. 
• Witnesses reported that Rapid Support Forces (RSF) aimed to attack an army air base controlled by Sudan Armed Forces (SAF). 
• 88 cases of sexual violence has been recorded across Sudan by the Combating Violence Against Women Unit (CVAW) with most cases reportedly perpetrated by the RSF. CVAW confirmed that unreported cases are expected to be much higher. 
• There are rising cases of ethnic targeting of women and girls as well as forced disappearances according to CVAW.
• Over 220 children have been treated for suspected measles in camps for internally displaced persons in White Nile state, confirmed Médecins Sans Frontière (MSF). 72 children were admitted to 2 functioning clinics out of which 13 children died.
• MSF raised concerns over rising risk of waterborne diseases and malaria as the rainy season is approaching. 
• Creating lasting humanitarian corridors in Sudan could be achieved by external intervention in the form of a peacekeeping mission, analysts say. 
• RSF announced an intensive campaign against looting and vandalism in order to protect the civilian population. RSF Major General Essam Al-Din Saleh Fadeil warned that any military personnel or civilian will be held accountable if found guilty.
• Reserves of water, food and fuel in El-Obeid city in North Kordofan reached a critical point with RSF blocking roads from all directions. El-Obeid with its strategic location has been under siege since the start of the conflict.
• RSF has reportedly introduced a tax on people who are moving between countryside and urban areas around El-Obeid. 

Refugee Situation (per 3 July)

• South Sudanese Catholic Archbishop, Stephen Ameyu Martin Mula, urged dioceses across South Sudan to create capacities and establish emergency centres to relocate refugees and returnees that are arriving from Sudan. 
• In support of refugees and host communities in Dollo Ado and Bokolmayo woredas of Somali region,  government of Ethiopia published The Melkadida Refugee Compact 2023-2028. 
• The new compact, led and chaired by the Refugee and Returnees Service and Somali Regional State, aims to bring an inclusive and sustainable plan for local development targeting over 207,000 refugees. 

Situation in Ethiopia (per 3 July)

• The Ethiopian Ministry of Education has included schools belonging to Western, Northwestern, and Southern Tigray under Amhara Regional State in its official report. 
• The report was denounced by Getachew Reda, president of the Interim Regional Administration (IRA) of Tigray, saying that it goes against the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities (CoH) agreement and constitution. 
• The IRA called on the Ministry of Education to correct this mistake and issue an apology, and urged the government of Ethiopia to take steps of accountability for the ministry’s leadership. 
• Ethiopia has submitted an application to join the BRICS bloc of developing nations consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, confirmed the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Regional Situation (per 3 July)

• South Sudan is considering alternative routes for oil export through Ethiopia and Djibouti potentially, as the concerns over the loss of revenue from oil are increasing. 
• RSF threatened South Sudan to interrupt the transportation of oil unless Juba pays transit fees as well as that RSF would shut down the pipeline infrastructure unless South Sudan stops backing al-Burhan. 
• Armed fighting erupted between South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) and Sudan People’s Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO) in Wunkur County along the border of Upper Nile State on Saturday.
• It remains unconfirmed which of the sides opened the shooting as both parties accuse each other.

International Situation (per 3 July)

• The US lifted some aid restrictions on Ethiopia claiming that the human rights situation has been improving since the CoH agreement was signed. The food aid remains to be paused. 
• Deep concerns over this decision were expressed by Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International in a joint statement stating that the US is ignoring expert reports on the human rights situation in Ethiopia. 
• The joint statement further said that the US decision “sends a disastrous signal that US atrocity determinations come with few consequences”. 
• Deputy Head of Sudan’s Sovereign Council, Malik Agar, met with Sergey Lavrov, Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs in Moscow, in order to brief Russia on the situation in Sudan and discuss ways to address the crisis. 
• Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of SAF, is expected to participate at the Russia-Africa summit scheduled for 26–29 July in St. Petersburg. 
• South Sudanese president Salva Kiir and South African president Cyril Ramaphosa pledged to mobilise support for restoring peace in Sudan.
• The US imposed sanctions on companies in the Central African Republic which are linked to Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner group. The US aims to disrupt the influence of the Wagner group which contributes to disability and violence in Africa.