The Country’s Problems Go Far Beyond Tigray
ape, extrajudicial killing, manmade famine, denial of medical aid and services, and expulsions described by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken as “ethnic cleansing” are among the horrors of the brutal war that exploded in Ethiopia’s northern highlands in November 2020. Up to 600,000 people, mostly ethnic Tigrayans, are estimated to have died, the majority from starvation and disease. For close to two years, Western and regional powers wrung their hands but did little to halt the violence or prevent Africa’s second most populous state from disintegrating.
Then in November 2022, the African Union made an unexpected breakthrough, facilitating a cease-fire agreement between the Ethiopian government and the rebel Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front. The deal and a subsequent plan for its implementation are far from perfect and leave unresolved many thorny questions of peace. Even more troubling, they all but ignore the largest potential spoiler. Eritrea, which has been fighting alongside the Ethiopian government in Tigray, is neither a party to the agreement nor mentioned by name in the text. Although Asmara has been aligned with Addis Ababa throughout the conflict, it views the TPLF as an existential threat and may not be content with a peace deal that leaves the organization intact and its leaders alive.
Still, there are things that Ethiopia’s international partners can do to support the peace deal and give it the best chance of succeeding. They can seek to create as much momentum for the agreement as possible, coming together to provide unified support for its implementation and using their limited leverage to dissuade Eritrea and other potential spoilers from prolonging the conflict. By accelerating lifesaving humanitarian aid, pushing for a credible monitoring and verification mechanism, and encouraging the warring parties to supplement the cease-fire implementation talks with a political process, foreign powers can reinforce what so far is an encouraging but fragile Ethiopian bid for peace.
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