SITUATION REPORT – HORN OF AFRICA No. 361, 30 January 2023

Peace Negotiations (per 30 January)

• A senior US official said that Eritrean troops are still present in Ethiopia, despite claims  they have left.
• Reuters quoted US Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, as saying “With respect to Eritreans we understand they have moved back to the border and they have been asked to leave.”
• Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) army leader, major general Teshome Gemechu, said earlier that “there are no troops in Tigray which are not of FDRE”.
• Tigray spokesperson Getachew Reda called Teshome’s statement misleading, saying “there are thousands of Eritrean & Amhara forces in Tigray.” 
• He stated that verifying withdrawal is the task of the AU Monitoring, Verification and Compliance Mission’s (AU MVCM), but “if the [AU MVCM] team’s itinerary is any guide, there is little to suggest that this is going to happen soon”.
• Analysts note that Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed is forming new alliances, including with Sudan, to decrease the power of Eritrea and Amhara. Eritrean President Isayas is also working to form alliances, including with Russia. This could turn into a new situation of proxy Cold War conflict on the African continent.
• A Tigray source said that Eritrean and Amhara troops are present in the whole western zone of Tigray, in districts of Adiawala, Sheraro and Adiabo in the north western zone of Tigray. 
• The source reported that Eritrean troops are present in locations Gerhu Sirnay, Adi Shiquano, Edaga rebue, in the central zone of Tigray and in Gulo Mekeda and Irob districts of the eastern zone of Tigray. 

Situation in Ethiopia (per 30 January)

• The Ethiopian parliament speaker and the Russian Ambassador in Addis Ababa discussed their multidimensional bilateral relationship today (30 January), reports FBC.
• The speaker told the Ambassador that Ethiopia is committed to implement the Cessation of Hostilities (CoH) Agreement and end its conflict in the northern part of the country.
• During their meeting, the Russian Ambassador formally invited the speaker to participate in a Russia- Africa Parliament meeting expected to take place in Moscow. 
• The three breakaway archbishops and the 25 episcopates who also name themselves as “Holy Synod of Oromia and nations and nationalities” of the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church (EOTC), issued a statement denouncing their excommunication by the Holy Synod, says Addis Standard.
• They reportedly asserted that they acted based on the rules and regulations of the EOTC. Pictures were being circulated in social media showing the preparations of followers in different locations in western Oromia to welcome the appointed episcopate with banners and rallies.
• The CEO of the Ethiopian Shipping & Logistics Service Enterprise says that the company is unable to access around USD 220 million in foreign currency from the Ethiopian banks. 
• Ethiopian Ambassador to Nordic countries, Mehreteab, said these countries have shown interest to reinforce economic and development cooperation with Ethiopia, according to the Ethiopian Press Agency. 
• In his meeting with Ethiopian academics, PM Abiy has reportedly said his government is ready for peace talks with Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) despite his doubt about the OLA’s internal unity, according to Mereja.com.
• The PM reportedly said “Aba-Gedas (ethnic Oromo traditional elders) and local elders have tried, the option for peace is still open.”
• The PM further said “We’re ready to be at peace with anybody, but killing farmers isn’t right.” 
• PM Abiy Ahmed attended a military exercise in Awash Arba in the Afar region of Ethiopia, reports ENA. 

Situation in Tigray (per 30 January)

• The Ethiopian government disclosed that preparations have been finalised to resume public transport services over land into the Tigray region. 
• The Ethiopian ministry of transport has reportedly instructed public transport associations to start public transport to Tigray over land including to Mekelle, Axum and Shire, added FBC.
• The overland transport will reportedly start once a ministerial committee led by the minister of peace approves it. 
• Sources state that trade across borders with Tigray has restarted, resulting in a drop in grain prices. Pictures show goods being brought in. Amhara traders are coming in with trucks and have permission to sell the grain from the trucks directly. 

Situation in Eritrea (per 30 January)

• 415 Christians are imprisoned in Eritrea. Recently, 44 Christians had been arrested in Eritrea according to Dr Berhane Asmelash from Release International.
• A former prisoner who was recently released after 16 years in prison described inhumane conditions and torture during her imprisonment. The objective was that she would renounce her faith, which she did not do. 
• She was released as part of a recent amnesty of 200 people imprisoned on the basis of their faith.

Regional Situation (per 30 January)

Links of interest

Eritrea troops still on Ethiopian soil, U.S. says 
News: US says Eritrean troops still in Ethiopia, Tigray official calls claims of complete withdrawal “misleading”
Ethiopia to resume public transport into conflict-affected Tigray region
Twitter: Haphtom Berhe
ባህር ትራንስፖርትና ሎጂስቲክስ በግል ባንኮች ያስቀመጠውን የውጭ ምንዛሪ በፈለገው ጊዜ ማግኘት እንዳልቻለ አስታወቀ
Ethiopia: Nordic Countries Keen On Strengthening Economic, Development Cooperation With Ethiopia – Ambassador Mehreteab
Coordinated Combat Exercise Showed Ethiopia Has Built Force that Prevents War: PM
አፈጉባዔ አገኘሁ ተሻገር በኢትዮጵያ ከሩሲያ አምባሳደር ጋር ተወያዩ 
News: Breakaway Archbishops counter-excommunicate 12 EOTC Archbishops, prepare to dispatch nominee episcopate in defiance of Holy Synod’s decision 
Ethiopia PM says open for talks with OLA, doubts rebel group cohesion 
Another wave of Christians Arrested in Eritrea
Sudan, Chad agree to strengthening operations of joint border force